Four teams remain in the quest to make it to New Orleans for Super Bowl LIX. On Saturday, the two-time defending champion Kansas City Chiefs defeated the Houston Texans in the divisional round to advance to their seventh straight AFC Championship Game. The Chiefs will host a familiar foe at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium from the Buffalo Bills, who dominated the Baltimore Ravens at home on Sunday. The queue for the AFC Championship Game opened at -1 on Sunday night and continued to move toward Kansas City.
In the NFC, the Washington Commanders managed to surprise the No. 1 seed Detroit Lions on Saturday thanks to a spectacular performance from rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels. The Commanders will travel to face their NFC East rival, the Philadelphia Eagles, who advanced to the championship game with a victory over the Los Angeles Rams. The Eagles opened as six-point favorites against the Commanders and the line has dropped a half-point since then to -5.5.
Here’s a look at where our team thinks you can find values early in the line before they start to move as the week goes on.
All odds are accurate as of timestamp. For the latest odds, head to ESPN BET.
Joe Fortenbaugh’s first bet: Chiefs -1.5 on Bills
Last week: Ravens (+1) against Bills. Line closed at Bills +1.5. The Bills won 27-25.
Thanks to Buffalo for taking advantage of Baltimore’s myriad mistakes, but can you really count on another +3 turnover differential to get you through the AFC Championship Game? The Bills were outgained by 143 total yards by a sloppy Ravens team that finished the game with 25 points, 416 total yards and a 70% third down conversion rate. Scoring 30+ points on the road was definitely a possibility for Baltimore. And let’s not forget the officiants here, who tend to side with Mahomes. Disagree? Since Kansas City committed 11 penalties for 120 yards against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers in Super Bowl LV (2021), the Chiefs have been penalized 30 fewer times for 222 fewer yards than their opponents in their 11 playoff appearances playoffs that followed. I’m going to put it here.
Tyler Fulghum’s first bet: Commanders +5.5
Last week: 6-point teaser: Chefs -1.5 | Commanders +14.5. The Chiefs won 23-14. The Commanders won 45-31.
I feel like this line overvalues the Eagles by a point or two. The Commanders have already beaten the Eagles once this season. Jayden Daniels plays better football than Jalen Hurts. In the Divisional Round, the Eagles had another 200+ yard rushing performance and had a +2 turnover margin against the Rams and still didn’t cover. They almost lost the game in regulation time. I picked Philadelphia to win the NFC and I’ll stick with that, but I feel like this line should respect the Commanders a little more than it does.
Seth Walder’s first bet: Bills ML +105
Last week: Lion Commanders with a total of over 55.5 points. The Commanders won 45-31.
The Bills are simply the better team.
Excluding Week 18 (when both teams rested), the Bills have a huge EPA drawback advantage: 0.26 to 0.15. In other words, every 10 Bills passing plays are worth one point more than every 10 Chiefs passing plays. And the ground game? Exact same story: 0.07 for Buffalo, minus-0.03 for the Chiefs.
Yes, Buffalo’s pass defense has been much worse lately, although over the course of the year these two teams have been about the same. And that’s less important than the offense, which is more stable from week to week than the defense. In order to support the Chiefs, you have to believe in some sort of ethereal Mahomes playoff push that I’m just not going to buy against a Bills team that has demonstrated its superiority over the course of this year.
Pamela Maldonado’s first bet: Chiefs ML (-120) against Bills
Last week: Commanders (+8.5) vs. Lions. Line closed to commanders +8.5. The Commanders won 45-31.
Fueled by their knack for grinding out wins in nail-biting fashion, the Chiefs have mastered the art of thriving under pressure. The brilliance of Patrick Mahomes in decisive moments, coupled with the tactical genius of Andy Reid, regularly guided Kansas City to triumph, even when they were outplayed or seemingly outplayed. Their proven playoff experience and championship DNA provide a mental advantage against the Bills, who have yet to exorcise their playoff demons against Kansas City. The Chiefs should punch their ticket to another Super Bowl.
More ESPN bets:
