Only eight teams remain in the playoffs after wild card weekend and the action continues with the NFL Divisional Round. Four “win or go home” matchups will decide who plays in next week’s AFC and NFC championship games, including two on Saturday and two on Sunday.
The weekend begins with Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and the two-time defending champion Kansas City Chiefs taking on CJ Stroud and the Houston Texans (4:30 p.m. ET, ESPN). Meanwhile, in the NFC, Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions will face rookie Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders (Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, FOX).
On Sunday afternoon, the Philadelphia Eagles, fresh off a victory over the Green Bay Packers in the wild-card round, will face the winner of the Minnesota Vikings-Los Angeles Rams game (Sunday, 3 p.m. ET, NBC) . The weekend ends with MVP betting favorite Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills taking on first-team All Pro QB Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens (6:30 p.m. ET, CBS).
Here’s a look at where our team thinks you can find values early in the line before they start to move as the week goes on.
All odds are accurate as of timestamp. For the latest odds, head to ESPN BET.
Last week: Bills (-8.5) vs. Broncos. Line closed at Bills -7.5. The Bills won 31-7.
I think Baltimore is the favorite here, so let’s cut our money now. Which team has the best defense? Baltimore. Which team has the best attack? Baltimore. Which team has the best head coach? Baltimore. The “Lamar can’t win in the playoffs” narrative offers initial value here. Speaking of Jackson, don’t you think he’s trying to silence everyone? The two-time MVP just ran the ball 15 times against the Pittsburgh Steelers last Saturday, his most rushing attempts in a game since Week 1 in Kansas City. He has more weapons and more paths to victory than Allen at his disposal.
Last week: Ravens (-9.5) vs. Steelers. Closed line Ravens -9.5. The Ravens won 28-14.
I think we have two great teaser options in Leaders and Commanders. It would be shocking to see Kansas City lose to the Texans at home. The Chiefs may not cover, but they always win. Their offense is as healthy as it has been all season with Hollywood Brown back alongside Isiah Pacheco. We only need KC to win by a basket here, which is very likely. On the other side, the Commanders clearly have a franchise QB in Jayden Daniels. And while Washington may not beat the Lions in Detroit, it appears Daniels should help them stay competitive. This should be a very fun playing environment with the aggression that Dan Quinn and Dan Campbell like to play with.
Last week: Chargers (-3) among the Texans. Line closed at Chargers -2.5. The Texans won 32-12.
The Texans played an ideal game Sunday against the Chargers: a few explosive passes to get on the board on offense, several big putbacks on defense and an absolutely dominant pass rush that dictated the storyline of the game for four quarters. The latter could reappear against a Chiefs team with question marks at left tackle, but Kansas City’s interior pass protection is much better than Los Angeles’ and Mahomes has negated pressure on the left side the entire time. ‘year. The Chiefs return Jaylen Watson to the starting lineup on defense and should have plenty of tools to keep Houston’s offense stuck in the mud.
The Chiefs play close games. They win, but the matches are generally competitive, defensive affairs. Only four of the Chiefs’ 15 wins this season have been by more than eight points. The combined records of losing teams in these lopsided contests are 24-44. The Chiefs haven’t covered a spread that big all season; they are 7-0 but 0-7 ATS when scoring at least six points this season, according to ESPN Research). They’re also coming off a multi-week layoff, with a bye into the wild-card round after sitting their starters in Week 18. The Texans looked as sharp as they got been all season against the Chargers last Saturday. The Chiefs beat the Texans by eight points in their Week 16 meeting and should be favored to win, but 8.5 points is too much for me against a Chiefs team that seems to like winning on the last possession of almost every match.
Last week: Rams (+2.5) vs. Vikings.
The Commanders showed both grit and precision in their thrilling 23-20 victory over Tampa Bay, with rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels orchestrating a balanced winning campaign. The Commanders have mastered the art of the game this season, with six victories when tied or behind in the final moments. Daniels’ rapid development and the team’s uncanny ability to deliver under pressure solidify his status as a dangerous underdog. Facing a powerful Detroit team, Washington’s momentum and knack for clutch performances make him a compelling choice to cover the spread. With their late-game magic, they could make things interesting again.
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