Musk wants to leave NATO. Thanks to Marco Rubio, it’s much more difficult

• Elon Musk said he had agreed that the United States should leave NATO.
• Before becoming Secretary of State, Marco Rubio made such a difficult decision.
• The congress adopted a law obliging a vote to approve any American withdrawal.

Elon Musk wants the United States to leave NATO. Before joining the office of President Donald Trump, the Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, made a decision so historic much more difficult.

“I agree,” Musk wrote on X on Saturday evening when a conservative political commentator suggested that the United States leaves the United Nations and NATO.

Before joining Trump’s cabinet, Rubio co-directed an effort from the congress to handcuff any future potential president who wanted to leave NATO. The name of Trump was not always mentioned, but it was clear that his then presidential candidacy worried enough legislators of the two parties to move it to brake.

Musk’s comments arrive at a critical moment.

NATO members, led by the United Kingdom and France, discuss how to continue supporting Ukraine in its war against Russia. The talks between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy exploded last week. Zelenskyy said he wanted security guarantees as a security net for any potential peace agreement with Russia. The White House proposed a mineral agreement of rare earths, but it was reluctant to establish a defense plan if Russia violated a potential ceasefire.

Trump has repeatedly expressed skepticism with regard to NATO, in particular the possibility that its mutual defense clause, article 5, could lead the United States to war if a nation like Montenegro was attacked. The president also threatened to leave the Alliance if the European nations do not spend more on their own defense.

A White House spokesman did not immediately respond to a request for comments on the question of whether Musk spoke in his capacity as principal advisor to the president. Musk is also the de facto chief of the White House office.

There could be a legal struggle on the horizon.

Under the 2023 law defended by Rubio, any NATO withdrawal requires either the approval of 2/3 of the American Senate, or an act distinct from the Congress. Since many GOP legislators remain loyal donors, it is extremely unlikely that Trump could bring together a large majority.

Legal researchers said it was perhaps not the last word. Trump could simply ignore the law. His White House suggested that a different restriction of the congress linked to the expenses of the federal funds is unconstitutional.

In such an event, a legal struggle could go to the Supreme Court of the United States. Historically, the judiciary is reluctant to get involved in disputes between branches. There are also concerns as to whether the legislators would reach the position threshold, the legal capacity to bring such a suit in the first place.

In the absence of a complete American withdrawal, there are other ways to undermine NATO.

A recent wargame revealed that Trump could simply dig the alliance by reducing American support, allowing NATO to withered.

The United States has a powerful perch in NATO and the United Nations institutions.

It is the greatest member of the NATO alliance, and the only country of its 80th anniversary to invoke its central defense cause, which came after the terrorist attacks of September 11. The United States is also one of the five permanent members of the powerful United Nations Security Council, the only group of the United Nations which can impose binding resolutions on the 193 Member States.