2024 was a big year for elections. More than 70 national elections have taken place around the world, affecting more than half of the world’s population.
Among the countries holding elections were some of the world’s largest democracies – India, the United States, Indonesia and Bangladesh – as well as 27 European member states electing the new European Parliament.
The total number of votes cast in 71 elections and the European Parliament elections was more than 1.6 billion, according to the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, or International IDEA.
Vote against the status quo
The 2024 elections around the world have been generally bad for those in power.
Every incumbent party facing national elections in a developed country in 2024 has seen its vote share decline, according to a November Financial Times article, citing the ParlGov (Database of Parliaments and Governments) project, affiliated with several universities in Europe.
This was the first time this had happened in nearly 120 years of materials cataloged by the project.
In rich and poor democracies around the world, more than 80% saw the ruling party lose seats or vote share in the last election, according to an ABC News analysis of 538.
The 538 analysis considers countries to be democracies if their democracy index score is at least 5 out of 10.
The shifts against incumbents have hit both the political left and right.
Conservatives have scored victories in countries and regions like the United States, where former President Donald Trump won every battleground state in the November election; in Portugal, where the center-right Democratic Alliance surged forward in March; and in the European Parliament, where more far-right MPs won seats than ever before in June’s elections, bringing their total to almost a quarter of the chamber.
The left took advantage of anti-incumbent sentiment to score victories, notably in the British parliamentary elections in July, in which the incumbent Conservative Party lost almost 20% of the vote compared to 2019, and in South Korea, where liberal opposition parties, led by the Democratic Party. , took power during the legislative elections in April.
In several countries, the existing parties have clung to power, but have reduced their majorities, notably in India, where the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party of Narendra Modi lost the absolute majority in Parliament in June, but retained power with help from allies. Incumbent parties in Japan, South Africa and France experienced similar declines in support on their path to re-election.
The trend against incumbent presidents did not necessarily manifest itself in less democratic countries, where governments could manage elections rigorously to achieve the desired outcome. In Rwanda, President Paul Kagame, who ran virtually unopposed in July, won 99% of the vote, mirroring the 2017 result. In Russia, President Vladimir Putin won a landslide victory in a March poll that international election observers dismissed as having no chance. to be free or just.
However, some signs of anti-presidential sentiment have also been seen in less democratic countries. In Bangladesh, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was re-elected in January in a vote boycotted by the opposition, but by a narrower margin than before. Seven months later, she was ousted in a popular uprising.
In Iran, where Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has the final say on all state matters, voters in July’s elections chose Masoud Pezeshkian, the most moderate presidential candidate, to replace hard-line Ebrahim Raisi, killed in a helicopter crash.
Why these swings?
Analysts have focused on voter dissatisfaction with the global economy, including rising costs, to explain incumbents’ electoral losses.
One of the few countries where the incumbent party has had success is Mexico, where Claudia Sheinbaum, chosen by her predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, easily won the presidency in June. Voters there reported satisfaction with economic conditions, one of the few countries where this was the case, according to a Pew Research Center survey in June.
Other issues facing voters in 2024 include increased migration in some countries and the continued fallout from the pandemic period, which has brought prolonged disruption to businesses, workplaces and schools.
Fueling this discontent, a Pew survey found that democracy itself has become less attractive to voters, reflecting a general sense of voter frustration with those in power.
The survey, conducted among respondents in 24 democratic countries in February, found that although large majorities thought representative democracy was a “good” system of government, a median of 59% said they were dissatisfied with how the system worked. democracy in their own country.
In almost every country surveyed, a majority of respondents said elected officials don’t care what people like them think. Reinforcing the sense of alienation, 42% of respondents said there was no party in their country that represented their views well.
Although 2025 will not be as important an election year as 2024, next year’s polls will determine whether the trend against incumbents continues or whether new factors will shape the results. The year will see elections in Argentina, Australia, Belarus, Canada, Japan and the Philippines, among others.
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