More cancer, fewer deaths? New analyzes of alcohol risks offer conflicting conclusions

When it comes to cardiovascular disease mortality, meta-analyses of four studies found an 18% lower risk of death among moderate drinkers compared to non-drinkers. In detail, there was a 23 percent lower risk among female drinkers and an 18 percent lower risk among male drinkers. The lower risk of cardiovascular disease mortality was rated as moderate certainty.

The ICCPUD magazine

The ICCPUD subcommittee report takes a darker view of moderate alcohol consumption, concluding that “alcohol consumption is associated with increased mortality for seven types of cancer (colorectal, female breast, liver, oral cavity, pharynx, larynx, esophagus (squamous cell type)), ” and “Increased risk of these cancers begins with any alcohol consumption and increases with higher levels of consumption.”

The study modeled lifetime risks of cancer and death as well as relative risks for a long list of problems, including infectious diseases, noncommunicable diseases and injuries. Additionally, the study not only focused on non-drinkers versus moderate drinkers, but also assessed the relative risk of six levels of alcohol consumption: one drink per week; two drinks per week; three drinks a week; seven drinks per week (one per day); 14 glasses per week (two per day) and 21 glasses per week (three per day).

Overall, the analysis is largely a draft. There are places where information is missing and some numbers are poorly labeled and difficult to read. There are two figures labeled Figure 6, for example, and Figure 7 (which may be Figure 8) is a graph that does not have a Y axis, making it difficult to interpret. The study also does not discuss the level of potential bias of individual studies in its analyses. Nor does he note statistically insignificant results, nor does he comment on the certainty of his conclusions.

For example, the summary states that “In the United States, men and women have a 1 in 1,000 chance of dying from alcohol consumption if they consume more than 7 drinks per week. This risk increases to 1 in 100 if they consume alcohol. more than 9 drinks per week.” But a review of the modeling behind these estimates indicates that the thresholds at which drinkers would reach a 0.1 percent or 1 percent risk of dying from alcohol consumption are For men, a 0.1 percent lifetime risk of alcohol-attributed death is achieved at 6.5 standard drinks, with a 95 percent confidence interval covering less. a glass per week and 13.5 drinks per week “This lifetime risk rises to 1 in 100 people above 8.5 drinks per week,” the text says, but the confidence interval is. again between one and 14 drinks per week So basically between one and 14 drinks per week, a man’s lifetime risk of dying from alcohol can be 0.1 or 1 percent, depending. this modeling.