Modi’s strongman rule raises questions about India’s ‘democratic decline’

Ten years after coming to power, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi appears poised for a rare third term with general elections underway.

Under his rule, India’s economic growth was robust and its geopolitical position in the world strengthened.

Yet the country has also witnessed signs of democratic backsliding that have become evident under his leadership, observers and critics say.

“Modi cast himself in the mold of an East Asian strongman,” Asim Ali, an independent political researcher in New Delhi, told CNBC.

He has also been called “the high priest of India – and he is above all political”, Ali added.. “This is very worrying because mixing religious nationalism and economic development” has been a “central feature” of his government.

In its latest 2024 report, the Sweden-based V-Dem Institute said a third Modi term could worsen the political situation “given the already significant democratic decline under Modi’s leadership and the continued repression of rights of minorities and civil society.

US research group Freedom House said India’s elections would take place in a media landscape characterized by increasing “legal attacks on critical journalists” and news outlets.

There’s no doubt that “the space for democracy between elections has shrunk” under Modi, Milan Vaishnav, South Asia director at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told CNBC.

“Today, the liberal character of Indian democracy is less apparent,” he added, with “the rise of majoritarianism, the weakening of checks on executive power and a growing intolerance towards dissent.”

Last year, the government criticized a BBC documentary – which questioned Modi’s alleged role during the deadly 2002 Gujarat riots – and blocked social media platforms from sharing clips of it.

Many of India’s mainstream media outlets, particularly Hindi-language ones, have been “co-opted” to disseminate propaganda to convey “the government’s message”, according to Ali.

India shuts down the internet more than any other country, with authorities frequently using such tactics to quell political protests and suppress criticism, rights groups say.

In a recent interview with Newsweek, Modi addressed these issues and called India the “mother of democracy.”

“Our media plays an important role in this,” he said, calling allegations of “diminishing media freedom” in India “dubious.”

The prime minister’s office and the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party did not respond to CNBC’s request for comment.

Before the elections, India’s main opposition – the National Congress party – accused the Modi government of freezing its bank accounts.

“This is a criminal action by the Prime Minister and Home Minister against the Congress party,” Congress leader Rahul Gandhi said in a fiery attack.

“This is being orchestrated to paralyze us before the elections,” he said, adding that the people were being “robbed of their constitution and democratic structure.”

The Modi administration has rejected the opposition’s allegations.

Previous governments also carried out “a witch hunt against opposition politicians”, said Chietigj Bajpaee, senior fellow for South Asia at Chatham House.

But the scale of the Modi government’s “actions is what makes it more alarming”, since it has “used key levers of power” to intimidate its opponents, he added.

India’s Supreme Court recently granted interim bail to Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, a vocal political rival of Modi, who was arrested in March in a corruption case. The arrest raised eyebrows because he was the leader of India’s Aam Aadmi Party, a key player in a broader opposition alliance.

The timing was “unusual” because it happened just before the election, Bajpaee said. It appears that the government “wants to leave no stone unturned” in its stated aim of securing 400 seats in the Lok Sabha or the lower house of Parliament, he added.

Over the past decade, Modi’s BJP has become emboldened in promoting its Hindu nationalist ideology, analysts say. The aim was to consolidate support among Hindus, who represent 80% of the country’s 1.4 billion inhabitants.

“The BJP is an openly pro-Hindu party,” Vaishnav said. Since coming to power in 2014, but especially after 2019, he has “sought to use law, regulation and even civil society to promote his agenda,” he added.

In January, Modi inaugurated a controversial temple in the city of Ayodhya – on the site where an ancient mosque was demolished by a Hindu mob – fulfilling a decades-old campaign promise.

“The temple issue would be important in the Hindi-speaking area, especially to energize the Hindu base,” Ali said, adding that the government had also used “anti-Muslim” rhetoric during the election campaign.

Modi was accused of hate speech recently after reportedly calling Muslims “infiltrators” at a rally, seen as undermining India’s secular constitution.

The Modi government’s “talks about creating a ‘Hindu Rashtra’ or a Hindu nation effectively indicate an ambition to demolish the divide between state and religion”, Bajpaee noted, warning that this could “erode the secular references of India”.

Yet public backlash against Modi’s hardline has been limited. His charisma and personality have made him incredibly popular both at home and abroad.

“There is no one in the opposition who can match that kind of popularity,” Ronojoy Sen, a senior fellow at the Institute of South Asian Studies, said in a recent CNBC interview.

Political observers say Modi has benefited from a cult status created around him – backed by the ruling party’s formidable electoral machine – to establish a direct link between him and voters.

For those unhappy with the direction the country is taking, “voting against the BJP means they have to get rid of Modi,” said Neelanjan Sircar, a senior fellow at the Center for Policy Research in New Delhi. This becomes “difficult to do if voters identify with him.”

Its populist appeal endures despite India’s deep-rooted economic problems, such as rising youth unemployment and widening wealth inequality.

A survey ahead of the CSDS-Lokniti poll showed Modi was well ahead in popularity, with 48% of respondents choosing him as prime minister over his opposition rivals.

India’s economic progress was “obviously not worse before Modi came in,” Sircar noted. “During the time of Manmohan Singh, India was also growing very fast,” he added, referring to the former prime minister’s economic reforms in the 1990s.

“What has changed is the way everything is branded with Modi’s image.”

Even the BJP’s manifesto is called ‘Modi Ki Guarantee’ – or the Modi Guarantee, Sircar pointed out, adding that the entire political system “is geared towards positive attribution at the top”.

With election results expected in early June, the prime minister and the BJP are widely expected to win a third term, given India’s weak opposition.

A re-elected Modi government will be “more forceful” in pushing forward “politically sensitive economic reforms and its more confrontational identity agenda,” said Bajpaee of Chatham House.

In a recent interview, Modi exuded confidence and said he wanted to make India “the third economic superpower”, describing his bold vision.

India’s leader will “show strength” to enact significant legislation on a strengthened mandate, Carnegie’s Vaishnav added.

“Modi has already prepared the electorate to expect ‘big changes’ once he is returned to power,” he added.