Modi’s BJP is set to gain a foothold in Tamil Nadu

CHENNAI, India — Polling stations in the Indian state of Tamil Nadu opened their doors on Friday as the country kicked off its sweeping national election process, with all 39 constituencies in the key southern state going to the polls in the first phase.

Politics in India’s sixth-largest state in terms of parliamentary seats has been dominated by regional players who have relied on ethno-nationalist ideologies rooted in Tamil language and culture to build their support base.

Over 62.2 million voters will choose from 950 candidates in Tamil Nadu. Nationally, 102 constituencies will go to polls in 21 states in the first phase.

In Tamil Nadu, for decades, the two national parties – the Indian National Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party – have played second fiddle to the two main regional parties, namely the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK). ).

The DMK won the 2021 Tamil Nadu state elections, defeating the incumbent AIADMK.

While the Congress has not been in power in the state since the late 1960s, the BJP, which was only formed in 1980, has been unable to build a base until now substantial election in Tamil Nadu.

But a wind of change seems to be rising – even if it is not strong enough to change the state’s overall situation.

Experts, politicians and people on the ground told CNBC that the Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s BJP is expected to see remarkable growth in Tamil Nadu, which has so far provided a bulwark against what has often been characterized as the BJP’s Hindu nationalist policies.

Following the departure of J. Jayalalithaa, the AIADMK chief, and M. Karunanidhi, the DMK patriarch, there has been a vacuum of charismatic local leaders and people are now turning to the BJP and Modi, said the vice president of BJP Tamil Nadu. Narayanan Thirupathy.

“There is a silent revolution going on in the state,” Thirupathy told CNBC.

Political observers and psephologists predicted that the BJP would make significant inroads in the state in terms of vote share. This may not translate into parliamentary seats, however.

Prominent poll strategist Prashant Kishor has reportedly said that he expects the BJP to get a “double-digit” vote share in Tamil Nadu.

Kishor, who has helped manage the election campaigns of several parties, including the BJP in 2014, said the BJP “will either be the first or the second party in Telangana (another southern state), which is a big thing “. The party had won four of the 17 seats in Telangana in the 2019 elections.

The BJP, with its allies, could achieve a 20% vote share in Tamil Nadu, Sanjay Kumar, co-director of Lokniti, a research program at the New York-based Center for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), told CNBC. Delhi. .

The party, which contested the 2019 general elections in the state as the junior partner of the regional AIADMK, managed to secure only 3.66% of the votes cast in Tamil Nadu that year, even though it he won an overwhelming majority nationally that ensured Modi a second place. -direct term. The BJP’s national vote share was just over 37% in the previous general elections.

Even though the increase in vote share in Tamil Nadu will be substantial compared to 2019, the BJP may well win one or two constituencies, Kumar said. “I don’t think they will become a challenger to local parties in 2024.”

The BJP, however, claimed that it would not only gain hugely in terms of vote share but also in terms of number of seats.

“We will be the second party this time in terms of votes and seats,” Thirupathy said, adding that the The party had built a strong base with a presence in every “nook and cranny” of the state.

DMK spokesperson A. Sarvanan called the claims “fantastic”. The BJP’s vote share might increase because it fielded more candidates this time, but it will not win a single seat in Tamil Nadu, he said.

A poll conducted by NDTV on Wednesday showed that the BJP is likely to win only two seats in the state, while the opposition National Alliance for Inclusive Development, which includes the DMK, may win 33 seats, the remaining four returning to the AIADMK.

Tamil Nadu voters who spoke to CNBC also said the BJP was unlikely to win a significant number of seats in the state.

“It’s DMK all the way. The BJP has no chance here,” said Sultan, who runs a small shop in Chennai’s T. Nagar flea market.

Sitting opposite him was Geetha, a Modi supporter, who said, “Modi is a superman, but DMK will sweep Tamil Nadu.” Modi will win India. »

The BJP does not have as much influence in the southern states, especially Tamil Nadu, as it does in the North because its ‘Hindutva’ politics do not appeal to people here, said DMK’s Sarvanan. Hindutva is an umbrella term used to refer to the promotion of Hindu nationalism for political purposes.

A Lokniti-CSDS poll last week showed that religion was no longer a major concern among voters in general. It’s even less of a concern in southern states: religion is a personal thing in Tamil Nadu, unlike in some northern states, where it has been politicized, Sarvanan said.

The survey showed that only 4% of respondents want to give another chance to the incumbent government due to “protection of Hindu/Hindutva interests”. On the other hand, as many as 42% want to re-elect the BJP for its “good work”.

Kumar of Lokniti-CSDS said people in southern states are not as easily swayed by emotional and religious issues as those in the Hindi heartland, which includes several northern Indian states.

“If you look at the nature of the campaign, the tone and tenor of the BJP campaign in the southern states compared to the northern states, it is very different. In the southern states, the BJP is more about development and the image of India in the world,” said Kumar.

As the BJP strives to make inroads into the Tamil-speaking state, it is also seeking to allay fears of “Hindi imposition”, an issue often raised by regional parties.

“We are committed to establishing Tiruvallur cultural centers across the world. As the world’s oldest language, Tamil fills us with immense pride, and the BJP is committed to raising its global stature through efforts concerted,” Modi said while releasing the BJP manifesto earlier this month. month. Tiruvallur is a revered Indian poet and philosopher from Tamil Nadu.

The party has never won a Lok Sabha seat from Tamil Nadu. Lok Sabha is the lower house of India’s bicameral parliament which houses representatives chosen directly by the people.

Among the five southern Indian states: Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu, the BJP has managed to build a strong electoral base only in Karnataka.

Kumar warned that it would not be right to treat south India as a single entity.

“We have to look state by state…different parties have formed government in different states. Tamil Nadu is very different from Karnataka. The nature of the contest is very different (in the southern states),” he said .

— CNBC’s Naman Tandon contributed to this story.