(Bloomberg) — Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party is poised to win a decisive majority in Indian elections for the third time in a row, several exit polls showed, extending his decade in power at the top of the major fastest growing economy in the world.
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Polls showed the National Democratic Alliance, led by the Bharatiya Janata Party, would win many more seats than the 272 needed for a majority in the 543-seat lower house of India’s Parliament. Official election results will be released on June 4.
Modi claimed victory for the BJP-led alliance based on the poll results, saying the ruling party’s record resonated with voters, especially the poor.
“I can say with certainty that the people of India voted in record numbers to re-elect the NDA government,” he said in a post on social media platform opposition alliance for its failure to provide a vision for the country. .
The results are expected to boost Indian financial markets, which have been volatile in recent weeks amid speculation that the BJP and its allies would fail to meet Modi’s ambitious target of winning 400 seats.
VK Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Financial Services, predicted a market rally on Monday, saying exit polls are dissipating some of the election jitters that weighed on sentiment in May.
“This is a boost for the bulls who will trigger a big rally in the market on Monday,” he said. Investors will also likely be buoyed by data released Friday showing the economy grew faster than expected, at 8.2 percent, in the fiscal year that ended in March.
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Although exit poll results were mixed in Indian elections, they correctly predicted the broad strokes of the outcome of the 2019 and 2014 general elections.
The poll results were released after the last of India’s nearly 1 billion registered voters finished casting their ballots in a grueling six-week election that was split into seven phases of voting. It started on April 19.
The BJP’s strategy of centering its campaign around the hugely popular Modi appears to have paid off if exit polls are accurate. The party’s star campaigner, Modi, has crisscrossed the country holding roadshows and speaking to large crowds. The party even titled its manifesto “The Modi Guarantee”.
A Modi victory would be historic: no prime minister since Jawaharlal Nehru – who led India for 17 years after independence – has managed to secure three consecutive terms in power.
Exit polls showed the BJP making gains in southern India, where Modi campaigned intensively to woo voters traditionally skeptical of the ruling party’s Hindu nationalist policies. Polls also showed the BJP retaining much of its monopoly in the Hindi-speaking northern states.
Shashi Tharoor, a Congress leader, called the exit polls “deeply unscientific” and said the party would await official results on Tuesday.
The victory also signals further difficulties for the country’s opposition, particularly the Indian National Congress, the largest party in the opposition alliance. The BJP’s failed mandate for a third consecutive national election could fuel fears that the Congress party needs an ideological overhaul or a change in leadership.
A bigger victory for the ruling party would allow it to push through decisive new policy measures and further elevate Modi’s global stature. This would enable the BJP to deliver on key campaign promises, such as increasing infrastructure spending, investing in domestic manufacturing and continuing popular social programs. It would also provide him with the political capital needed to push through controversial land and labor reforms.
India’s economy grew by more than 8% in the financial year ended in March, making it the fastest-growing large country in the world. The central bank forecasts growth of 7% for the current fiscal year, far outpacing a global expansion of around 3% in 2024. S&P Global Ratings this week flagged a possible upgrade in India’s credit rating, giving a boost to the financial markets just before that of the country. inclusion in the JPMorgan Chase & Co. Emerging Markets Bond Index later in June.
“If the results are consistent with exit polls, they should be very positive for markets as they would suggest policy continuity and a sustained focus on macroeconomic stability, reforms, infrastructure creation and prudence budget,” said Garima Kapoor, economist at Elara Securities India. Ltd.
–With help from Ruchi Bhatia, Preeti Soni and Anup Roy.
(Updates with additional exit polls.)
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