MLB Trade Deadline Report: Targets and Teams to Watch in a Troubled Market

We’re exactly five weeks away from the MLB trade deadline (it’s July 30 this year), so once a week we’re going to compile all of our most recent news on the deadline – rumors, buyers /sellers and (as they begin to occur) actual transactions – to keep you informed of the trading market.

This year’s deadline could be an all-or-nothing proposition – or, to be more precise, nothing-then-all. With the advent of the third wild card spot in each league, it has become more difficult to decide whether a team will be a buyer or seller.

Take the National League for example: in the old format (one wild-card team per league, 1995-2011), the division leaders (Dodgers, Brewers and Phillies from left to right on your card) would currently make up the three usual postseason positions, with the wild-card Braves rounding out the field of four. The surging Cardinals would be on the outside looking in, 3 1/2 games back, with the Padres and a slew of other teams breathing down their necks.

In the new format, the Cardinals and Padres are currently above average, with seven other teams always legitimately within range. The Giants are the third worst team in the NL, but are only 3 games back.

And don’t forget: Both of last year’s World Series teams (Rangers, Diamondbacks) made the playoffs as wild-card teams.

With more spots available (and with tanking now discouraged by the new draft rules), more teams are, you know, trying win, which is good for the sport! But in this case, that also means there are literally only two NL teams (Rockies, Marlins) that are obvious sellers.

Of course, it’s the Rockies and the Marlins. Colorado’s deadline strategy has been impenetrable in recent years, and three of the Marlins’ top targets are either on the injured list (Jesús Luzardo, Braxton Garrett) or underperforming (Josh Bell). Left-handed reliever Tanner Scott (1.64 ERA) should still be a top target, although his walk rate (6.3 per nine innings) is concerning.

It might make more sense, then, to look at the American League, where the White Sox and Athletics are obvious sellers, and it appears the Angels and Blue Jays should follow suit, with the Tigers on the bubble, 6 1/2 games out of a wild-card spot.

So let’s break down what we learned this week about who’s suing what, shall we?

The Marlins placed Jesús Luzardo (lumbar stress reaction) on the IL last week. (David Frerker / USA Today)

This week’s news

• In a Q&A with Jen McCaffrey, Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow wouldn’t commit to a direction, but acknowledged the Red Sox have some depth in the middle of the field in the minor leagues who could help them fill big league needs at the midfield level. deadline. The surprising Sox are currently 43-36 and their main needs appear to be another starting pitcher and – ironically – a shortstop.

• Also lacking pitchers: the Cleveland Guardians and the Baltimore Orioles, who both lead their division. Each team lost several starters to season-ending injuries. The Braves are in a similar boat, as are the injury-plagued Houston Astros. But…are the Astros a playoff team? Their cold start suggests otherwise, but they’re 13-7 in June and swept the Orioles this weekend, so don’t count them out just yet.

• In the relief pitcher market, the simple answer is: each The team could use an impact reliever or two, but the Padres stand out as a team to watch — both because they need help and because president of baseball operations AJ Preller doesn’t just can’t be left alone with a phone during trading season.

• On the offensive side, the Cubs could use an impact bat, and it wouldn’t hurt if it was someone who could play a little third base or catcher (Elias Díaz of the Rockies?) What about the executives who love to play In trade, Jerry Dipoto’s AL-West-leading Mariners have an extremely good starting rotation, but their bats have underperformed.

Checking the trading target value

If the Blue Jays fail to right the ship, will they move Vladimir Guerrero Jr.? (David Richard / USA Today)

Let’s take a look at some names that have been bandied about as likely trade targets and see how they are growing (or shrinking) their respective markets.

• OF Luis Robert Jr. (White Sox): It seems like a no-brainer that the dynamic center fielder is on the move this year, but as our reporting team points out, some in the industry think new Chicago general manager Chris Getz might overvalue Robert — or less be wary of selling low, as Robert is hitting just .198 (.768 OPS) this season. He’s making $12.5 million this year and will make $15 million next year, with $20 million in club options in 2026 and 2027. The extra years of control are nice, but with his injury history and his mixed results this year, teams might be hesitant to overpay in prospect capital.

• LHP Garrett Crochet (White Sox): Sorry, yeah, White Sox fans, you might want to avert your eyes. After pitching 5 2/3 shutout innings in Monday night’s 3-0 loss to the Dodgers, Crochet is 6-6 with a 3.05 ERA and 130 strikeouts in 94 1/3 of sleeves. Possible contenders are: Anyone who needs to pitch, so…about 60 percent of the league.

• 1B Pete Alonso (Mets), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays): At the start of the season, it would have seemed ridiculous for either to be on the market. Alonso may not be anymore, as the Mets are 13-6 in June and have gone from third-worst to tied for best among NL teams not currently in playoff position. Toronto, on the other hand, continues to slide further and further into a failed season, at 35-43 – 7 1/2 games out of a wild card spot. Would they part ways with Guerrero? (Cubs take note: he can I still play third base.)

• RHP Jack Flaherty (Tigers): After a rocky post-trade stint with the Orioles last year, Flaherty appears to have recovered well in Detroit, save for a minor back issue earlier this month. He is 5-4 with a 2.92 ERA, posting 108 strikeouts in 83 1/3 innings, making him a sought-after target in a market hungry for starting pitchers. As Cody Stavenhagen points out, Flaherty is eligible to receive a qualifying offer this offseason. If Detroit doesn’t trade him, they could offer him the “QO”, and if he signs elsewhere, they would receive draft compensation. Which choice is best? It depends on when Detroit thinks its window of contention will open.

• RHP Mason Miller, (A): The holy grail of bullpen additions, Miller is by far the best relief pitcher who could be available this year, with 60 strikeouts and 13 walks in 34 2/3 innings. But the buzz around the industry is that the A’s are asking for a king’s ransom. With the team moving to Las Vegas (for three years in Sacramento), it makes sense for them to target 2028 to compete. Miller doesn’t reach free agency until after the 2029 season, so the A’s don’t to have to trade it, but if someone blinks and pays a premium in leads, it might just set them up for the future.

First time, long time

Among the teams that could still push for a playoff spot: recent punching bags Pittsburgh, Washington and Kansas City. None of the three are necessarily favorites to emerge as wild-card teams this year, but all are within 2 1/2 games of the final wild-card position.

Pittsburgh: With the arrival of Paul Skenes (and the ascendancy of Jared Jones), the Pirates are more exciting than they have been since… what, 2015? But their offense could use a boost, especially in the outfield.

*Bae was activated from the IL on Monday and optioned to Triple A. All stats through Sunday’s games.

Washington: As Jim Bowden points out, the Nationals might make more sense as a seller than a buyer this year because they’re a bit ahead of schedule and have a few veterans on expiring contracts who could be traded to bolster the system. a longer series starting next season. But they’re only a game and a half away from a playoff spot, and for a fan base that’s seen horrible baseball since winning the World Series in 2019, throwing in the towel would be tough — pun intended note – sell.

Kansas City: After a great start, the Royals have come back to earth a little in recent weeks, with a record of 3-7 in their last 10 games. Like Washington, they are a bit ahead after losing 106 games in 2023. If their recent skid continues in the coming weeks, an interesting story to watch could be how they handle Seth Lugo, who has been very good this year (10-2, 2.42 ERA). He’s signed through 2025 (with a player option for 2026), so if the Royals believe they’re on the brink of contention, it might make more sense to keep him. If they think the window actually opens in 2026, he could be an exceptionally valuable trade chip.

Of course, they could also hit a new hot streak and end up as buyers. In this case, the bullpen and an outfield bat would seem the most logical shopping list.

What I’m watching next week

With the return of players like Max Scherzer, will the Rangers manage to revive? (Jim Cowsert/USA Today)

• Texas Rangers: They Finally got their first sweep of the season, eliminating the Royals in three games last weekend. This week, they face the division-leading Brewers and Orioles. As players begin to return from the IL, this week could be a huge make-or-break road trip for the defending champions.

• Houston Astros: Currently one game ahead of Texas and in great shape after that sweep of Baltimore, this might be the Astros’ best chance to ride a wave of momentum out of Seller’s Alley before the deadline. Furthermore, if they TO DO going on a run, will that mean the rotation at first base is working, or will it just be a green light to make a deal to solidify the position?

• Ben Rice (Yankees): New York’s playoff hopes are light years ahead of Houston’s, but a similar question lingers: Can Rice, called up a week ago to replace the injured Anthony Rizzo, provide value at first base ? Whether the answer is yes or no, I’ll be interested in the follow-up question: What happens when Anthony Rizzo is ready to leave the IL?

• Reds/Pirates: This has a few to do with the NL wild-card race, but more to do with the fact that Elly De La Cruz and Oneil Cruz are playing in the same game, and that’s still worth watching.

(Top photo by Mason Miller: Eakin Howard/Getty Images)