Missouri attorney general race emerges as new front in GOP civil war

The Republican Party’s civil war has reached a new beachhead: blood-red Missouri.

The state’s Republican attorney general is pitting incumbent Andrew Bailey against Will Scharf, a lawyer for Donald Trump. And while intraparty battles elsewhere in states like Texas and Idaho have ostensibly focused on issues like school choice and vaccination mandates, the Aug. 6 primary in Missouri is largely focused on allegiance to the former president and who counts as a member of the often-maligned “establishment.”

Bailey, who was appointed to his position in 2022 and has never had to defend himself at the ballot box, has used his office to throw red meat at the base, filing lawsuits on issues such as transgender athletes and immigration and requiring the Justice Department to provide documents and communications regarding investigations into Trump.

Scharf, meanwhile, is promoting his ties to Trump just as the former president is on trial in New York, while presenting Bailey as an insider to Jefferson City – a capital with a Republican governor and a Republican supermajority in both state legislative houses.

“I think it’s going to be due to a lot of these factors here, in that it’s a microcosm of the establishment versus the outsider, Trump versus the mainstream Republican,” said an unaffiliated strategist at the Republican Party of Missouri. “It’s certainly going to be a race that’s going to show how poignant one side or the other is and whether anyone is capable of fending off a funded Trump candidate without a lot of baggage at this point, in Scharf’s case.”

“I don’t think you’ll see a lot of political differences between the two,” added the operative, who like others interviewed for this article spoke anonymously to discuss the race. “I think it’s fair, is being affiliated with Trump more important, at the end of the day, than anything Bailey could have done as AG?”

To break through, both campaigns are seeking support from Trump. A source close to the race confirmed to ABC News that Scharf and the former president had discussed the primary, and Bailey campaign consultant Mike Hafner said the attorney general’s camp and Trump’s team had spoken of the race.

Still, it’s unclear whether Trump plans to get involved in the race, leaving the candidates to fight among themselves. And with so little ideological light between Bailey and Scharf, the race largely revolves around who is Trumpier and more combative — with the first signs of an ugly race brewing.

A super PAC supporting Scharf, which is backed by deep-pocketed outside groups such as the Club for Growth and the Concord Fund, released an initial ad saying that “Trump is counting on Will Scharf as one of his lawyers to defend him against legal proceedings”. persecution and electoral interference” and that Scharf “attacks the entire legal and media establishment.”

Bailey pulled his own punches, dubbing Scharf “Wall Street Willy,” pointing to his affluent East Coast upbringing and ties to wealthy outside benefactors through his PAC.

Although Bailey is technically the incumbent, operatives likened the primary to a primary for an open seat, given that neither candidate has appeared on a general election ballot before, and neither candidate is expected to hold nothing back to present himself as the right choice for primary voters. get up to speed on the race.

“Both candidates have shown a willingness to attack, and I think this will be a no-holds-barred race,” said a second Missouri GOP strategist. “Anytime (you) have an open seat, it’s important to define yourself, but it’s also important to find your opponent. And I think both candidates are going to try to do that to the best of their abilities.”

Observers have speculated that Scharf would have the upper hand in a more national knife fight given his legal representation of the Republican Party leader at a time when polls show Republican voters believe Trump is being treated unfairly by the justice system – a message that can be spread across the world. waves by the millions in external spending.

“If you’re a Missouri Republican, or I would say, a Republican voter in general, they believe Trump, a lot of these various cases and accusations are exaggerated,” said a third Missouri GOP strategist. “And Will Scharf’s ability to say, ‘I’m a Trump lawyer,’ primary voters will say he’s at the forefront of fighting and defending freedom.”

“…That will resonate, and that will probably be all Will Scharf has to say,” the strategist added.

Some Scharf allies insisted the race had less to do with Trump and more to do with frustration over what voters see as broader inaction from Jefferson City on issues near and dear to the Republican Party faithful – justified or not.

“Conservatives… want a proactive, activist, conservative attorney general who will take the fight to the left. And there is a belief and a perception, and I believe it’s true, that it’s not Bailey, but it’s really Will,’ someone who’s going to shake up the world, someone who’s going to be an agent of change, rather than just an individual from Jefferson City who’s going to keep getting along and not making it big. -thing,” said a Scharf campaign aide.

Multiple sources interviewed by ABC News said voters perceive Jefferson City as a “swamp” – despite it being the seat of unified Republican power – and said that perception extends to those who work there, including including Bailey, who was appointed to his position. role by a governor, he was previously general counsel, regardless of policy.

“(Bailey) is a good pro-Trump, pro-Second Amendment, pro-life conservative,” the third Republican Party strategist said. “I don’t think you can really find anything wrong with his record as attorney general.”

Bailey’s campaign has highlighted the litany of lawsuits he has filed against the Biden administration and actions on culture war issues, including local lightning rods such as the suit of the former St. Louis district attorney , Kim Gardner, and the defense of Kansas City Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker following controversial remarks he made about women.

“I think Andrew Bailey does all the good things you want to see in a conservative fighter, and I think Missourians will respond well to that in August,” Hafner said.

“We are as pro-Trump as Scharf,” he added. “There’s not going to be a lot of daylight where we’re at ideologically, but man, there’s a lot of character issues that we’re going to draw a pretty significant contrast on with Will Scharf.”

To be sure, Bailey isn’t the only conservative to be targeted in Missouri this year. The state’s Republican National Committee members, all of whom ran with Trump’s support, were ousted this year. And the GOP primary to replace term-limited Gov. Mike Parson, a Republican, is also divisive.

But the attorney general primary offers particularly incisive tea leaves given how Bailey has performed in office — and, strategists say, in a race dominated by national trends, overcoming Scharf’s proximity to Trump won’t will not be an easy task.

“I’m not sure he can do anything,” the third strategist said bluntly.

“He’s going to try to say that Will Scharf is this kid from New England who is a private equity kid who went to Harvard… and he’s a scammer,” the source added. “Will this persuade some voters? Yes. But at the end of the day, in Missouri, I think Trump and the Republicans statewide have a favorable rating of almost 80%. And so, if you’re Will Scharf, you can kind of rule out the 20% that maybe don’t like Trump and still win.”