Mets reportedly expect Pete Alonso to sign elsewhere

The Mets and Pete Alonso I’ve been in trouble for a while, but it seems the club is blinking. SNY’s Andy Martino reports that they now expect him to sign elsewhere, with today’s deal with Jesse Winker is part of a plan to distribute the money among various alternatives. Earlier today, Will Sammon and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that the market for Alonso was heating up, with the Blue Jays and Mets involved, as well as an unidentified third team.

Alonso and the Mets have clearly had mutual interest in reaching a new deal for a long time, but without the ability to agree on a price. The club reportedly offered him a seven-year extension worth $158 million in the summer of 2023, but no deal was reached. Since then, changes have occurred on both sides of the negotiations. The Mets hired David Stearns to replace Billy Eppler as head of their baseball operations department in September 2023, with Alonso then hiring Scott Boras the following month.

During the 2024 season, the teams generally expressed admiration for each other but never seemed to make much of an effort to secure an extension. Alonso declined a qualifying offer and became a free agent. Although he has been linked to various teams in recent months, he never seemed to get a deal he liked. Alonso’s camp reportedly pivoted to a short-term deal, offering the Mets a three-year pact with opt-out clauses. The Mets seemed somewhat receptive to this framework, but a lack of money still prevented a deal from being made.

In recent weeks, the Mets have also been connected to players like Winker, Antoine Santander, Alex Verdugo, Tanner Scott, Luis Arraez And Tim Hill. They would also have proposed Teoscar Hernández a two-year contract before returning to the Dodgers for a three-year contract.

Martino’s report compares Mets’ current plans to Yankees’ after missing Juan Sotospreading the money between different players, as opposed to one large sum of money. After Soto went to the Mets, the Yankees made deals with Max Frit And Paul Goldschmidtas well as trading for Devin Williams And Cody Bellinger. They could have made some of these moves in conjunction with Soto, but they may have been more aggressive in these areas since they did not tie up their resources in a single mega-deal.

The signing of Winker alone does not prevent the Mets from bringing back Alonso, as the two coexisted on the roster in 2024, with Alonso as the regular at first while Winker spent time in the outfield corners and in the slot. designated hitter. But it has been reported that the club wants to use some internal options at corners. Marc Vientos was the regular third baseman last year and had an outstanding year at the plate, albeit with mediocre defensive metrics. Maybe he could move to first place, while the Mets use Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio And Luisangel Acuña to cover third base.

Perhaps things will change in the coming days, but it now seems possible that the Mets are indeed ready to move on from Alonso. Previous reporting from The Athletic indicated that the Mets were in talks with various players and did not want stalled negotiations with Alonso to hinder them. While Winker isn’t strictly blocking Alonso’s path back to Queens, it seems to indicate the Mets are ready to move on.

If this indeed happens, it will be a surprisingly dull end for the Mets-Alonso relationship. He was a local star with New York roots and progressed through the club’s system after being selected in the second round of the 2016 draft. He debuted with flying colors in 2019, hitting 53 home runs and also winning the Detroit derby. circuits. This campaign is now widely considered the season of the ball, but Alonso continued to be a major home run threat over the next few years.

Alonso now has 226 home runs over the last six seasons, just behind Aaron judges at that time. He won another derby title in 2021 and has been a fixture for the club in its recent history, having played no fewer than 152 games in a full season.

During that time, the Mets went from a punchline to a powerhouse. While they were previously known for their poor budgets and results, Steve Cohen purchased the club ahead of the 2021 season and made it one of the biggest spenders in the league. They have made the playoffs in two of the last three years, with Alonso playing the role of hero last year. Just a few months ago, he hit four homers in 13 postseason games, including the homer off Williams to help the Mets overtake the Brewers and out of the Wild Card round.

But his star power in the media and the general public seemed to exceed his popularity in today’s analytically inclined front offices. While the power of the home run has been real, Alonso’s other contributions have been muted. His walk rates have been decent but not exceptional, he’s not a burner on the base paths and his defense hasn’t been well regarded. His overall attack has also decreased. While he hit .261/.349/.535 for a 137 wRC+ through 2022, he only slashed .229/.324/.480 for a 121 wRC+. FanGraphs saw him as worth 2.1 wins above replacement last year, a solid but not elite number. There were 119 position players who were at 2.2 fWAR or higher last year.

So it seemed possible early in the offseason that Alonso would find his deals missing in free agency. As part of MLBTR’s annual Top 50 list, we considered predicting Alonso a deal of the type three years, $80 million that Bellinger got from the Cubs last year after lingering in free agency until February. We went back on that prediction, putting 5/$125 million on Alonso, but now it looks like he might end up getting something like this deal. It could well be somewhere other than Queens.

It’s a bit of a surprising pivot, as the Mets haven’t been shy about spending since Cohen bought the team. While Stearns was in Milwaukee, he never spent a lot of money on first basemen, but he never had the resources he has now. Despite a deeper bank account, it still seems like Stearns would prefer to invest in whatever way he sees fit. The club also didn’t play at the top of the starting pitching market, not drafting guys like Fried or Corbin Burnesinstead of taking risks on guys like Frankie Montas And Clay Holmes. Montas is coming off a rough year while Holmes will try to transition from the bullpen to the rotation.

All of this will seemingly leave Alonso looking elsewhere for his next gig, with Toronto as a possibility. The Jays already have a first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. but it doesn’t seem like the plan is to trade him. According to reporting by The Athletic, the plan would be for Guerrero and Alonso to share first base and DH, with Guerrero occasionally crossing the diamond to play third base. Although The Athletic’s article said the Jays “would prefer” to hold on to Guerrero, Rosenthal made an appearance on Foul Territory and more categorically rejected the possibility of Guerrero being traded.

Although the fit would be a bit awkward, the Jays could use the power. Toronto’s offense was close to league average last year, but that was largely due to a walk rate that was beaten by only six other teams. In the home run department, they were actually one of the worst clubs, ahead of the Marlins, Rays, Nationals, and White Sox.

They don’t really have a strict designated hitter, which perhaps allows Alonso and Guerrero to share a lineup. Justin Turner was their primary DH for the first half of last year, but he was traded to the Mariners at the deadline. It would be a little more difficult for the club to rest someone like George Springerbut it seems the Jays are open to it regardless. Guerrero taking the hot corner could allow for more flexibility, even though he has only played 104 innings there over the past five seasons. Most of that happened late last year, as the Jays were reeling from a losing season. It’s unclear how willing they are to put Guerrero in meaningful matches.

Financially, it appears the club still has dry powder. They reportedly had a strong offer on the table for Burnes a few weeks ago, before he signed with the Diamondbacks. They have since signed Jeff Hoffman to a three-year, $33 million deal, but that’s surely well below what they were willing to pay Burnes.

It’s theoretically possible that signing Alonso could give the Jays some coverage in the event they can’t sign Guerrero, an impending free agent, to an extension. But it seems very likely that Alonso will strike a deal with the option to step away after 2025, meaning he’ll only stick around for 2026 if he has an off year. They would probably prefer Guerrero to be locked in long term, as he is significantly younger than Alonso, while seeing Pete move away sooner.

There are surely other clubs in the mix. Alonso has been linked to the Giants, Red Sox and Angels in recent weeks. Teams like the Tigers, Athletics, and Mariners make sense as speculative crises. Since Alonso rejected a QO, the Mets will receive a draft pick after the fourth round if he signs elsewhere. The penalty for the signing club will depend on its revenue sharing status and whether or not it paid tax on the competitive balance last year. Perhaps we’ll get some clarity soon as the staring contest with the Mets appears to be winding down.