Mark Mobius, president of the Mobius Emerging Opportunities Fund, speaking on CNBC’s The Exchange on March 27, 2024.
Adam Jeffery | CNBC
Veteran emerging markets investor Mark Mobius said the result of India’s elections would not change his bullish view of the country.
The world’s most populous country launched a multi-phase election on April 19, as nearly a billion people cast their ballots.
Indian election results will be released on Tuesday next week. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his ruling Bharatiya Janata Party are widely expected to win a third term, as pre-election surveys seem to suggest.
Modi reportedly said he was confident that the BJP and its coalition alliance would get a total of 400 seats. But the margin of victory still seems uncertain, causing some anxiety among investors.
“The big question mark is whether (Modi) can get a certain number of seats to amend the constitution,” Mobius told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” on Thursday.
“If it doesn’t happen, it doesn’t matter,” he said. “No big change, you can still see an incredible growth trajectory for India going forward.”
India’s economy beat expectations, growing at a robust 8.4% in the October-December quarter, driven by strong private consumption and manufacturing activity.
The Ministry of Finance further highlighted that the country is on track to become the world’s third largest economy by 2027, with a GDP of $5 trillion.
Foreign investors are in “wait-and-see mode” ahead of the election results, said Gautam Chhaochharia, head of global markets for India at UBS.
“What we are telling investors is that there is short-term event risk around the election, depending on the outcome,” he told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia.” But India’s economic fundamentals remain “very strong and solid”.
Whether Modi returns to power with a simple or large majority, the government’s big priority for the next term will likely be ensuring that India’s “manufacturing history” remains strong, Chhaochharia noted.
S&P Global Ratings on Wednesday upgraded India’s outlook to ‘positive’ from ‘stable’ as the country’s strong economic expansion has a constructive impact on its credit indicators, it said in a note .
“We expect strong economic fundamentals to support growth momentum over the next two to three years,” S&P said. Regardless of the election outcome, the rating agency expects broad continuity in economic reforms and fiscal policies.
India’s infrastructure sector will be an important growth area, Mobius said. This is “why we are particularly interested in infrastructure stocks in India – it is going to be a big step forward,” the investor added.
The next government’s success in financing significant infrastructure investments without “substantially widening” the country’s current account deficit will be crucial, S&P noted.
If India manages to significantly reduce its budget deficit while meeting these targets, “the support for its rating will strengthen over time”, he adds.
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