The Toronto Maple Leafs are in a life or death situation in Game 5 on Tuesday night.
But that’s not even half the story.
Toronto had to deal with mysterious illnesses in two of its best players, a viral video of three-star hockey players fighting on the bench in Game 4, and, most notably, another pathetic performance in a huge playoff game .
The Leafs are still alive, but it would be difficult to find anyone counting on them to respond on Tuesday night, especially with Auston Matthews looking set to sit out.
Boston is a -150 favorite at home in Game 5.
Maple Leafs vs. Bruins Prediction
(7 p.m. ET, ESPN)
There’s a lot of noise to clear out of this series, but it seems like a fair summary to suggest that Boston deserves a 3-1 series lead based on how they’ve handled things compared to Toronto.
The Bruins didn’t outscore the Leafs 5-on-5, but Boston’s special teams, goaltending and ability to maintain composure in big moments made the difference through four games.
While it’s a bit surprising that Boston crushes Toronto in the special teams battle, it shouldn’t come as a shock that the Bruins have the better of the Buds in goaltending and are the better team the most clinical and the most composed. .
It’s been Boston’s MO for years.
This series was supposed to be razor thin, and the team that won by the margin was always going to be in control, but what’s frustrating for handicappers (and Leafs fans) is that it’s very difficult to project this kind of thing.
One would imagine that Boston will continue to have stronger goaltending and Toronto’s special teams haven’t shown any signs of life, but those are just factors that are hard to quantify.
All the noise and chaos in this series makes Game 5 really difficult to handicap, but the one thing I keep coming back to is that Toronto closed at +124 in a similar situation in Game 1.
Betting on the NHL?
This contest featured the same projected goaltending matchup (Jeremy Swayman vs. Ilya Samsonov), and the Leafs were missing one of their most dynamic playmakers (William Nylander).
Things change in a series and teams will show cracks that need to be adjusted in the betting market, but this price seems like a bit of an overreaction to the gloom surrounding the Maple Leafs.
It’s a good place to buy cheaply.
The bet: Maple Leafs (+128, BetRivers)
New York Post
