Lots of up and down volatility in USDCAD as politics in Canada and US dominate

The USDCAD has had a volatile trading today as tariff news from Pres.-elect Trump sent the dollar lower and then higher, and word of the resignation of Canada PM Trudeau also contributed.

Technically, the price moved lower on the tariff news taking the pair below a “Red Box” (see chart below) that has defined the ups and downs over the last few weeks of trading between 1.4334 and 1.4466.

However, the denial of the tariff news by Trump, and some selling of the CAD after the resignation announcement pushed the pair back into the “Red Boxk, and up toward the now converged 100 and 200-hour MAs at 1.4388. The high price reached 1.4378.

What next?

In the short-term, the failure on the break outside the Red Box is disappointing for the sellers. It will take a move below the low of that box at 1.4334 to give the sellers more confidence and control.

On the topside, the price will need to get back above the converged 100 and 200 hour MAs at 1.4388 to give the buyers more control and shift the bias more firmly in the buyers hands.