Los Angeles fires: Why forecasters are so alarmed by new extreme winds

Firefighters continued to contain the Palisades and Eaton fires overnight, ahead of dangerous winds that began blowing through the area early Tuesday.

Officials are concerned that strong winds combined with dry fuel and low humidity could lead to new fire starts in Southern California or the expansion of existing fires. The Palisades Fire had burned more than 23,700 acres and was 17% contained as of Tuesday. The Eaton Fire, which ravaged Altadena, has burned just over 14,100 acres and is 35 percent contained, according to the Los Angeles County Fire Department.

An unprecedented fourth fire weather warning of a “particularly dangerous situation” went into effect Tuesday morning and is expected to last through Wednesday, affecting large swaths of Los Angeles and Ventura counties. The National Weather Service reserves the designation to signify an extreme red flag warning, when particularly dangerous fire weather conditions are expected.

Gusts of up to 72 mph had already hit the San Gabriel Mountains early Tuesday.

“Life-threatening, destructive and widespread winds are already here,” Los Angeles Fire Chief Kristin Crowley said at a news conference Tuesday. “We are adopting an aggressive, lean-forward posture…strategically placing fire patrols and vehicles in unaffected high fire risk areas of the city.” We carefully manage our operations to ensure we can respond quickly to any new fires.

Crowley said crews made extensive preparations for the latest extreme weather event, strengthening fire control lines around the Eaton and Palisades fires, clearing dry brush from surviving structures and organizing resources to areas where new fires could break out. The Governor’s Office of Emergency Services has also prepositioned additional engines, fire crews, helicopters, bulldozers and water tenders throughout Southern California.

Officials hope to be able to keep firefighting planes in service on Tuesday, but it is unclear to what extent conditions will allow this.

Battalion Chief Brett Willis said air support in Los Angeles County remains ready and able to fly if needed. A helicopter was on site Tuesday morning to carry out reconnaissance.

However, winds had already reached higher and dangerous speeds in Camarillo, he said, where authorities decided to move some helicopters and fixed-wing planes parked there south and east. so they can fly if necessary. .

The Palisades and Eaton fires are among the deadliest in modern California history. Authorities have confirmed the death toll at 24, but warn the death toll will likely continue to rise.

There are also still 37 people missing from the two fires, officials said. Two missing people “most likely were found deceased,” but authorities have not positively identified them, LAPD Chief Jim McDonnell said.

Although there is no final tally of burned structures yet, the fires are already among the most destructive the state has seen.

Damage assessments confirmed that 1,902 structures were destroyed in the Eaton Fire, although inspection teams have only covered about 30% of the fire’s footprint. Officials estimate that 7,000 structures were damaged or destroyed, although these structures could include homes, businesses, smaller outbuildings and sheds and even vehicles. Officials estimate the Palisades Fire has burned more than 5,300 structures.

The winds hitting the region over the next two days will be more like a conventional Santa Ana event, forecasters say, with winds coming from the east and spreading the fires westward. This means winds will be more focused on Ventura County compared to last week’s winds, which generally came from the north and hit Los Angeles County hard.

Areas covered by the latest alert include Camarillo, Fillmore, Northridge, Simi Valley and Thousand Oaks. A conventional red flag warning – for a combination of strong winds, dry air and vegetation, and expected severe wildfire behavior if ignited – is in effect throughout the region, including large parts of Los Angeles, San Diego, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino and Ventura Counties, as well as some mountainous areas of Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties.

Southern California Edison implemented a public safety power shutoff for nearly 63,000 customers in its service area Tuesday as winds began to increase. Such closures are intended to mitigate threats, often in areas where utility equipment could pose a high risk of starting a wildfire.

Of those without power, about 25,000 customers live in Los Angeles County and about 21,300 in Ventura County. Another 116,000 customers in Los Angeles County and 83,700 customers in Ventura County could see their power cut off at some point during the wind event, according to the utility.

Los Angeles County’s wireless emergency alerts are still experiencing persistent problems after millions of people in Los Angeles County incorrectly received panic messages on their cell phones last week.

Even though the county’s emergency management office says it is now ready to send out new alerts after revamping its system, some incorrect alerts continued to appear on phones Monday, days after the evacuation warning was issued. justified and far from the planned geographical area.

“We have received reports that some people are still receiving alerts,” the county Office of Emergency Management said in a statement Monday. “We believe these are echo alerts. The echo alerts were found to be the result of messages relayed by cell towers that were shut down during fires and power outages and are now coming back online.

The extent of the problem was not immediately clear Monday, but officials said they were prepared to issue new alerts during the ongoing wind event this week, if warranted.

Authorities urged Angelenos to be on alert for new wildfires and prepare to evacuate if necessary.

“Prepare to leave early if you receive an evacuation order or warning,” Los Angeles County Fire Chief Anthony Marrone said Tuesday.

As winds began to increase overnight, Oxnard firefighters rushed to a brush fire that broke out at the bottom of the Santa Clara River near North Ventura Boulevard. The Auto Fire, fanned by wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph, quickly grew to about 55 acres. After midnight, firefighters said the progress of the Auto fire had been stopped, but firefighters were still on scene.

As firefighters grapple with extreme fire conditions, residents who lost their homes in the Palisades and Eaton fires are grappling with the overwhelming idea of ​​rebuilding their properties. Many have not been able to return home since the fires started.

On Monday, Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass issued an executive order aimed at accelerating rebuilding efforts, primarily within Pacific Palisades. Bass’ decision comes a day after Gov. Gavin Newsom, via his own executive order, waived regulations under state environmental laws in an effort to speed rebuilding in the Palisades, as well as Altadena and other areas outside the city.

“This order eliminates red tape and bureaucracy to organize around urgency, common sense and compassion. We will do everything we can to bring Angelenos home,” Bass said in a statement.

The National Weather Service’s “particularly hazardous situation” label, in effect for the next two days, has traditionally been used only rarely, when forecasters believed sustained, strong and violent tornadoes were possible. The National Weather Service office in Oxnard, which covers Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties, adopted it in 2020 in hopes of clearly sounding the alarm for fire weather conditions the most extreme.

“Any type of red flag warning is dangerous. But there’s a gradient even within that range of situations, and so we wanted a way to convey the extreme of extremes. And the PDS is what came out of that,” said Ryan Kittell, a weather service meteorologist.

During each of three alerts issued this season, destructive wildfires have erupted: the 19,904-acre Mountain Fire in Ventura County, which razed more than 240 buildings; the 4,037-acre Franklin Fire, which spread quickly to Malibu and destroyed 20 buildings in December; and last week’s Palisades and Eaton fires, which are now among the deadliest and most destructive in California’s modern history.

Tuesday’s wind gusts mark the fourth wind event in Santa Ana since last week’s catastrophic firestorms, according to weather service estimates.

Extreme fire-related conditions are also fueled by extremely dry conditions. The last significant rain in downtown Los Angeles was on May 5, when 0.13 inches of rain fell. Since Oct. 1, only 0.16 inches of rain has fallen there — a drop in the bucket compared to the historical average of 5.34 inches that should have fallen at this point in the season.

The last time there was this little rain between early May and late December was 1962, when downtown Los Angeles received just 0.14 inches, according to the weather service.

“In my opinion,” said retired climatologist Bill Patzert, “the last nine months have been some of the driest in recorded history, going back to 1900. In my career, I have never seen events punitive measures in Santa Ana overwhelm the normal winter to this extent. rainy season. »

There should be some relief and improvement in conditions starting Wednesday evening. But this relief could be brief. There are signs that another Santa Ana wind event could materialize Sunday and Monday, including a 30 to 40 percent chance that red flag warnings will return for Los Angeles and Ventura counties.

Times staff writers Liam Dillon and Andrew Khouri contributed to this report.