Sadiq Khan’s bid for a third term as London mayor now hangs in the balance, as insiders warn the election is too close to call.
Votes are being counted in the capital, with Labor on high alert for Conservative candidate Susan Hall to pull off an upset.
Polls leading up to Thursday’s vote gave Mr Khan a comfortable lead of between 10 and 22 points.
However, nervousness began to spread in Labor circles yesterday, amid rumors of a spike in turnout in the London suburbs – usually dominated by Tory voters and where anger over ULEZ expansion was the fiercest.
Official turnout figures last night suggested it had been higher in outer London and lower in central London – Mr Khan’s usual stronghold.
Mr Khan’s supporters fear he may have been harmed by a wider trend of Muslim voters fleeing the Labor Party because of Keir Starmer’s strong support for Israel.
Labor concern has spread over Sadiq Khan’s prospects in London, amid allegations of low turnout and backlash over ULEZ and Gaza.
Polls leading up to the election suggested the incumbent was on course for a comfortable victory over her conservative rival Susan Hall (pictured)
Final surveys gave Mr Khan a lead of between 10 and 22 points.
The row over the expansion of the £12.50-a-day ULEZ rate had already been credited with helping the Tories hold on in the Uxbridge by-election, even though Mr Khan’s team had hoped that the fallout would dissipate.
Mr Khan was one of the first Labor politicians to call for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, but Sir Keir’s strong support for Israel’s right to self-defense angered many supporters.
Yesterday’s results were proof of that, with Labor losing overall control of Oldham council after independents claimed seats.
A senior ally of Mr Khan told MailOnline it was “going to be tight”. “The polls were lousy,” they added. “London is exceptionally difficult to fathom.”
Another political veteran, who still believes Mr Khan will win, pointed out that Labor did not perform well in local council by-elections.
Asked on Sky News yesterday about nervousness, Shadow Health Secretary Wes Streeting, MP for Ilford North, said: “We always feared this race would be close.”
He pointed out that Mr Khan only won the first round of voting with 5 percent in 2021. Since then, the government has changed the voting system to first past the post, meaning Mr Khan will not benefit from the second preferences of the Greens and Lib Dems.
“We were warning Londoners, you know, not to risk waking up to a Tory mayor,” Mr Streeting said.
He continued: “It is too early to say what the result will be, the verification of votes takes place today, the counting will take place tomorrow.
“I mean, from what I’ve seen in my own constituency and bearing in mind the last election a few years ago – Sadiq lost all but one of the wards in Iford North – I felt there was a little more support for him this time in my constituency.
Asked on Sky News yesterday about London’s nervousness, shadow health secretary Wes Streeting, MP for Ilford North, said: “We always feared this race would be close.”
Keir Starmer and his allies await news of the London mayoral election today.
“There are people who are angry with him over Ulez. We sort of had this argument that we needed to follow Uxbridge through the election.
“And, you know, I didn’t agree with him, but he stayed true to his positions, to his beliefs. Fair enough.’
Mr Streeting denounced the racial abuse suffered by Mr Khan, but acknowledged Gaza could be a factor in the election.
“There is no doubt, based on the results already achieved across the country, that Gaza is a problem,” he said.
“And I say that with great respect for the voters who sent us a message on Gaza. So we will have to wait and see where the results arrive.
Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom said: “While Sadiq Khan remains the favorite to win the race for London Mayor this morning, doubts are clearly setting in and Betfair Exchange punters are now seriously considering his conservative rival Susan Hall as candidate.”
dailymail us
