Nearly 35 years ago, Detroit and Washington were competing for the right to go to the Super Bowl. Despite the addition of running back Barry Sanders, the Lions fell short against heavily favored Washington, which cruised to a 41-10 victory en route to its third Super Bowl triumph.
The roles have changed for Saturday night’s playoffs between the two teams. The Commanders have rookie phenom Jayden Daniels, but the deeper Lions are the favorites to beat Washington while earning their second straight trip to the NFC Championship Game. Something tells me, though, that this game will be much closer than the 1991 playoff game between Washington and Detroit.
Here’s how to follow the action in real time, with a full preview and prediction for Saturday’s big game.
Washington’s offense has soared under first-year offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury. Under his leadership, the Commanders boasted the fifth highest scoring offense in the NFL during the regular season. Washington finished sixth in the league in third-down and red-zone efficiency.
Daniels’ rookie season was nothing short of sensational. In addition to having one of the best throwing performances a rookie quarterback has ever had, Daniels also led the Commanders with 891 rushing yards while averaging 6.0 yards per carry. Daniels’ 13 carries in last week’s wild-card win over the Buccaneers were the third-most he’s had in a game this year. Expect the same against the Lions.
A big positive for Washington’s offense has been the emergence of complementary skill players, particularly tight end Zach Ertz and wideouts Dyami Brown and Olamide Zaccheaus. Their play helped open things up for Pro Bowler Terry McLaurin, who caught seven passes for 89 yards against the Buccaneers, including a big touchdown on a fourth-and-goal play. Expect the Lions defense to focus on stopping “Scary Terry” while forcing Washington’s other playmakers to step up.
The Commanders running game remains a question mark, however. The team has had success against weaker defenses, but has struggled to do so against some of the tougher units in the league. Austin Ekeler and Brian Robinson Jr. combined to run for just 43 yards on 18 carries against the Buccaneers. It’s safe to say they’ll need to make a bigger impact Saturday night if the Commanders want to pull off the upset.
Defensively, the Lions received some good news this week with cornerback Terrion Arnold cleared to play after the 2024 first-round pick suffered a foot injury in Week 18. It will be interesting to see if the Lions have Arnold travel with McLaurin to try to play down Washington’s best receiver.
The Lions defense was seventh in the NFL in points allowed this season. Detroit sorely missed passer Aidan Hutchinson, who has 3.5 more sacks than the unit’s second-ranked sacker despite playing in just five games. Detroit, however, made up for its absence somewhat by getting turnovers (led by safety Kerby Joseph’s nine picks) and leaving the field on turnovers. No defense has been better on third down this season than the Lions, who have allowed their opponents to convert on third down just 32.4 percent of the time.
On paper, you would think the Commanders would have no chance of running the ball against the Lions’ fifth-ranked run defense and would instead attempt to attack what was the league’s 30th-ranked pass defense during the regular season. But those numbers hide the fact that Detroit was 22nd in the NFL in average yards per carry allowed and fifth in the league in interceptions recorded.
Daniels needs another big game, but Washington’s offense needs to move the ball well enough to take some pressure off its young quarterback.
A heavyweight, the Lions offense scored more points than any other unit in football during the regular season. A big reason for that is the play of Jared Goff, running backs David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, and wideouts Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams, who became the first quartet of teammates to each accumulate 1,000 all-purpose yards in the same year. .
Montgomery was cleared to play Washington after missing the Lions’ last three games with a knee injury. In Montgomery’s absence, the Lions received outstanding performances from Gibbs, who proved he could carry the load if asked to do so. Gibbs, who led the NFL with 16 touchdown passes, finished the regular season with three straight 100-yard rushing performances.
Along with that quartet, the Lions have one of the league’s best tight ends in Sam Laporta and two solid veteran wideouts in Tim Patrick and Kalif Raymond. The Lions’ depth at the skill positions is a big reason for their success. Two other reasons are offensive coordinator Ben Johnson’s creativity and head coach Dan Campbell’s willingness to routinely go for it on fourth down. Expect the Lions to attempt several fourth-down conversions against the Commanders.
Detroit’s offense will be without a key offensive player, however, with starting guard Kevin Zeitler (hamstring) ruled out. Christian Mahogany, a rookie sixth-round pick, is expected to make his second career start.
They weren’t a dominant unit, but Dan Quinn’s defense was good enough to help the Commanders win 12 games this season. Washington’s defense was third in the NFL this year against the pass, which is obviously a good sign for Saturday night. The Commanders’ defense is led by linebackers Dante Fowler (10.5 sacks), Frankie Luvu (eight sacks and 99 tackles) and Bobby Wagner, a future Hall of Famer who recovered a huge fumble in the team’s victory. last week in Tampa.
Defenses must pick their poison against the Lions’ offense; they are simply too talented to contain everyone. Expect the Lions to focus on exploiting Mahoney’s inexperience, pressuring Goff and blocking Detroit receivers at the line of scrimmage in an attempt to disrupt their timing. Washington, thanks to its front seven, is one of the few teams capable of containing the Lions’ running game without sacrificing too much in the secondary. Washington just needs to make sure the big plays from Montgomery and Gibbs are kept to a minimum.
The Lions don’t play boring games in the playoffs. Each of their three playoff games last year came down to the wire, and I expect that to be the case again Saturday night. Washington will give them a win, but the Lions should come out on top as they move within a Super Bowl game.
Look for fourth downs from both sides to help determine the outcome of this game. Both teams aren’t afraid to get into these situations, which will result in some jaw-dropping moments for both fan bases.
Take: Lions 31, Commanders 27
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