Light snow system accelerates, likely covering Michigan before the holidays end

The end of the weekend is expected to see fairly widespread snow across Michigan. Here is the timing and outcome of snowfall.

First, know that this won’t be a big snowstorm compared to what we’re used to in Michigan in the dead of winter. On the other hand, be aware that this will likely be the first time this year that a dusting of snow will be found on many Michigan roads.

Yesterday I wrote about this weather system arriving with light snow Sunday evening, just as most of us were returning from holiday get-togethers. Today, all data shows a weather system arriving about six hours earlier. This means light snowfall will begin Sunday afternoon across Michigan. Western Lower Michigan and the Upper Peninsula are even expected to have snow by midday Sunday.

Here is the forecast for areas of rain and snow from Saturday evening into Sunday evening. It shows light snow with the lightest shade of blue. That’s a snowfall rate of one inch every six hours.

The European model, as we call it, is a good model. Below is the American model for the same period. The American model shows the same situation with light snowfall, but already on Sunday midday. Note that the American model is known to operate six hours too quickly in areas of precipitation.

How much snow can we expect? The general situation shows that it is a light snow given our winter-hardy mentality. Let’s look at both the European model and the American model. Remember: even though it’s called the European model, it still plans for the United States.

The European model says we could all get up to an inch of snow during the day Sunday and up to 2 inches north of Traverse City in the Petoskey area. It’s definitely not heavy snow, but the first inch of snow is the slipperiest inch.

The U.S. model is just a bit heavier, with one to two inches of snow across much of lower Michigan and a third of an inch possible along the northwest coast.

So if you’re heading back to Michigan on Sunday afternoon, get ready for your first little bit of winter driving. If you slow down a touch you should be pretty safe.

It looks like Mother Nature is going to make winter easier for us this year. Some years it hits us with one of our biggest snowstorms to start the winter.