Chances of replacing VDL:
Thierry Breton
For what? He is French. Breton told POLITICO last year that he had been a “Plan B” candidate to become European commissioner in 2019 (he only got the job after the top pick, Sylvie Goulard, was eliminated in confirmation hearings in Parliament). He strongly suggested that he was ready to become a plan B again, if von der Leyen’s candidacy did not materialize. As a former French finance minister, Breton has senior executive experience and, although he is not from the EPP, he is quite conservative. His background as a former CEO who put industrial policy back on the Commission’s agenda allows him to argue that he should lead a European executive much more focused on competitiveness.
Breton also became von der Leyen’s most prominent critic in the Brussels bubble. In an infamous tweet following her appointment as the EPP’s lead candidate, Breton noted that the Commission head didn’t exactly enjoy unanimous support within the EPP for a second term. He was also part of the group of commissioners who criticized the choice of Markus Pieper as Commission envoy for SMEs. And while a senior French official told POLITICO that Macron was “furious” over von der Leyen’s tweet, other French officials have since said that President wasn’t so upset after all.
Why not? Breton may have more enemies than friends in Europe’s highest circles, including within the Commission and among many EU countries, and many question his record. His brazen self-promotion and reputation for talking before he speaks irritated his fellow commissioners, foremost among them competition boss Margrethe Vestager, but also many of the staff and civil servants he was supposed to work with.
A vicious (and anonymous!) article published in the French newspaper Atlantico describes Breton as “the worst French commissioner in 30 years”, suggesting he has rivals determined to undermine him. Furthermore, he is not a member of the EPP, and the controversy surrounding his mandate at the head of the French technology group Atos is seen as a major handicap for any possible confirmation by the European Parliament.
Chances of replacing VDL:
A suprise
For what? The prolonged bargaining between political groups for Europe’s top posts after the European elections is always full of surprises. In 2019, no one would have bet that von der Leyen would become Commission President; Brussels could well be surprised by a candidate it has never heard of or met before.
Why not? We have no idea who it is (otherwise it wouldn’t be a surprise).
Chances of replacing VDL:
Clea Caulcutt contributed reporting from Paris. Šejla Ahmatović and Jacopo Barigazzi contributed reporting from Brussels.
Politices
