Latest on the Mets, Pete Alonso

7:28 p.m.: Alonso and the Mets would “make progress on at least the structure of a proposed deal that is expected to last three years and include at least one opt-out,” according to Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman. “Even though the parties appear to favor this structure in the short term,” Sherman and Heyman write, there is still “a gap between the offer and counteroffer,” with precise numbers not mentioned.

5:15 p.m.: The Mets and Pete Alonso I’ve been watching things for quite a while and it’s still unclear who will blink first. Reports last week indicated that Alonso’s camp had proposed a short-term deal with opt-out clauses with the Mets, but Alonso still has not signed. Reports from SNY’s Andy Martino and the New York Post’s Joel Sherman suggest a pivotal point is coming where the Mets could move to plans that don’t involve Alonso having a spot on the 2025 team.

It has long seemed possible that Alonso’s free agency would go this route. Last winter, the “Boras Four” remained in free agency until the start of the new year and ultimately agreed to lower-than-expected contracts. Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Blake Snell And Jordan Montgomery all signed deals that were only guaranteed for two or three years, but with each player having the option to opt out after each season. There was reason to expect Alonso to follow them in this direction.

Alonso reportedly turned down a seven-year, $158 million extension offer in the summer of 2023. He still had one season of arbitration remaining at that point, ultimately earning $20.5 million in 2024, so he actually turned down $137.5 million for six free agents. years. There had been reports that Alonso was reviewing the contracts of Freddie Freeman And Matt Olson to the targets. Freeman signed for $162 million over six years, but with deferrals. Olson signed an eight-year extension worth $168 million while he was still two years away from free agency.

But Alonso is not as complete a player as these two. While his power is elite, his plate discipline and defense are both inferior to Freeman and Olson. He has also just had a few relatively difficult years. He had a career batting line of .261/.349/.535 and a 137 wRC+ through the 2022 season, but then hit .229/.324/.480 for a 122 wRC+ over the two campaigns the most recent. This is still a strong production but it will naturally concern a club which plans to make a long-term investment.

Alonso still hasn’t signed, with pitchers and catchers expected to report to spring training in less than a month. There is an apparent desire to move towards a short-term agreement, but no agreement has always been reached. There is still time as Bellinger’s deal was completed at the end of February last year, Chapman’s at the beginning of March. However, today’s reports indicate that the Mets are beginning to consider other options.

The Mets have experienced a front office shakeup since giving Alonso that extension. Billy Eppler was general manager at the time, but David Stearns now runs the club’s baseball operations department. Stearns never really devoted many resources to first base, as MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows. A three-year, $16 million contract for Eric Thames was his biggest investment in the Brewers position. Milwaukee without tender Chris Carter after hitting 41 homers in 2016, rather than paying him a projected salary of $8.1 million.

Stearns works with more resources now that he’s with the Mets, but he’s continued to be measured on how he uses those resources, outside of Juan Soto agreement. Instead of signing top free agent starting pitchers, he sent out bounce flyers on guys like Frankie Montas And Canned Griffin. He also signed Clay Holmeshoping to get the starting pitcher’s value for relief prices.

The Mets have a few in-house options for corner field work. Marc Vientos had a great season in 2024, playing primarily third base, but his defense didn’t receive high marks. It has been suggested that he could be moved to first base, with the hot corner then open to competition between guys like Brett Baty, Luisangel Acuña And Ronny Mauricio. There is some uncertainty going this route and it would make sense to add Alonso back into the mix, but it appears the Mets and Alonso’s camp can’t agree on a fair price.

Teams will naturally be attracted to a short-term deal because it reduces the chance they’ll be saddled with a player’s declining years, but the player is usually looking to get a higher average annual value as a tradeoff. Bellinger’s deal guaranteed him $80 million, but early, allowing him to retire after one year with $30 million in his pocket or after two years with $60 million in the bank. Alonso may be looking for something similar, which the Mets may not like.

The Mets are expected to be a third payer of the competitive balance tax and RosterResource projects their CBT number to be $276 million next year. Signing Alonso for something in the range of $25-30 million per year would put him closer to the fourth and final tier of the fee, which is $301 million this year. The Mets would pay a 95% tax on spending from tier three to tier four, then a 110% tax on spending beyond the top tier. As such, even hiring Alonso for a year and then letting him retire would cost them around $60 million. If he has a disappointing season and doesn’t opt ​​out, as happened with Bellinger, they’ll be stuck with the deal for another year or two.

The Mets also stand to receive draft compensation if Alonso signs elsewhere. As a taxpayer, their bonus choice would not take place until after the fourth round. It’s not hugely important in baseball terms, but it’s not nothing and would go away if they re-signed Alonso.

It’s a tricky calculation for the Mets to make with a franchise favorite, but it appears they’re willing to play hardball and move on to other options soon. Martino mentions that the Mets contacted the Blue Jays about Vladimir Guerrero Jr. but he also drastically downplays the talk, calling the matchup “fantasy baseball.” This is consistent with public comments from Toronto general manager Ross Atkins, who has often downplayed the likelihood of the Jays trading Guerrero or Bo Bichette.

Martino talks about reunions with Jesse Winker or sign Antoine Santander as other possible pivots, although he adds that the latter is less likely to materialize. For Alonso, if he’s not destined to return to Queens, he’ll have to make his own pivot. MLBTR recently looked at some of the clubs that could potentially sign him to a short-term deal, with the Giants, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Angels, Athletics and Tigers among the options.