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JPY is strongest and CAD is weakest at the start of the NA session.

From strongest to weakest major currency

At the start of the North American session, the JPY is the strongest and the CAD is the weakest at the start of the NA session. The USD is mixed and expected to fall to start the new trading week.

This week there will be two central bank meetings and rate announcements. The Bank of Canada on Wednesday and the ECB on Thursday are both expected to cut rates. Later in the week, the US jobs report will be released (Friday). Estimates are for a gain of 185K compared to 175K last month. The employment rate should remain stable at 3.9%

If you’re looking for Fedspeak, think again. The next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will take place on June 11-12. With the calendar now just 9 days away from the meeting, putting the Fed in a blackout period. As a result, no Fed officials spoke until the meeting ended. For your view of the rules:

  • “The blackout period will begin at midnight Eastern Time on the second Saturday before a meeting and end at 11:59 p.m. Eastern Time the day after a meeting.
  • For example, if the Committee meeting begins on a Tuesday, the blackout period will begin at the beginning of Saturday ten days earlier, and if the meeting ends on a Wednesday, the blackout period will end at the end of Thursday.

Today in Europe, June PMI data was released. The data was mixed. Below is a summary of each:

Spanish Manufacturing PMI Index (EUR).; Exceed expectations

  • Real: 54.0
  • Forecast: 52.5
  • Previous: 52.2
  • Impact: Positive; better than expected.

Swiss Manufacturing PMI (CHF) exceeds expectations

  • Real: 46.4
  • Forecast: 45.4
  • Previous: 41.4
  • Impact: Positive; better than expected, showing improvement.

Italian Manufacturing PMI Index (EUR) Not in line with expectations

  • Real: 45.6
  • Forecast: 47.9
  • Previous: 47.3
  • Impact: Negative; worse than expected, indicating contraction.

French final manufacturing PMI (EUR): expectations disappointed

  • Real: 46.4
  • Forecast: 46.7
  • Previous: 46.7
  • Impact: Slightly negative; slightly below expectations and the previous value, indicating a contraction.

Final German manufacturing PMI (EUR): in line with expectations

  • Real: 45.4
  • Forecast: 45.4
  • Previous: 45.4
  • Impact: Neutral; matches forecasts and the previous value, indicating continued contraction.

Eurozone final manufacturing PMI (EUR): missed expectations

  • Real: 47.3
  • Forecast: 47.4
  • Previous: 47.4
  • Impact: Neutral to slightly negative; slightly below forecast and previous value, indicating contraction.

Final manufacturing PMI in the United Kingdom (GBP): expectations missed

  • Real: 51.2
  • Forecast: 51.3
  • Previous: 51.3
  • Impact: Slightly negative; slightly below expectations and the previous value, indicating a slight expansion.

Chinese PMI data was mixed.

Today, the United States will release its PMI data as well as the S&P./Global version:

  • S&P Global will be released at 9:45 a.m. with expectations of 50.9 versus preliminary 50.9.
  • The ISM manufacturing PMI is expected at 49.8 versus 49.2+ months. The price paid is expected at 60.0 against 60.9

Construction spending in the United States will also be released at 10 a.m. with a gain of 0.2% compared to -0.2% last month.

OPEC+ met:

  • OPEC+ extends production cuts announced last year until 2025.
  • A reduction of 1.65 million barrels per day, announced in April 2023, extended until the end of 2025.
  • A reduction of 2.2 million barrels per day, announced in November, extended until the end of September this year, and phased out by September 2025.
  • Previous reductions of 3.66 million barrels per day from 2022 and 2023 remain in place.
  • The UAE’s production quota increased by 300,000 barrels per day, gradually from January to September 2025.
  • OPEC+ will restrict supply over the next 18 months, with market supply gradually increasing from the end of this year.

A preview of other markets at the start of the North American session.

  • Crude oil is trading up $0.11 or +0.14% at $77.10. At this time Friday, the price was $77.91.
  • Gold is trading up $2.99 ​​or 0.12% at $2,329.75. At this time on Friday, the price was higher at $2,344.40.
  • Silver is trading down three cents or 0.09% at $30.34. At this time on Friday, the price was $31.31.
  • Bitcoin is currently trading at $69,017. At this time on Friday, the price was trading at $68,395.
  • Ethereum is trading in repairs and at $3,806.02. At this time on Friday, the price is trading at $3,805.50.

In the pre-market, the overview of the main indices is up after Friday’s mixed results. Thanks to a rise late in the day, the NASDAQ index closed just below the unchanged level. The S&P and Dow industrial average rose. GameStop shares are rising as RoaringKitty is back in play with a huge option position at a $20 strike price (with a short expiration). Shares are trading at $40.20, up 17.20 cents

  • Dow Industrial Average futures imply a gain of 15.25 points. On Friday, the index rose 574.84 points or 1.51% to 38686.33
  • S&P futures imply a gain of 14.99 points. Yesterday, the index rose 42.03 points or 0.80% to 5277.50
  • Nasdaq futures imply a gain of 95.10 points. Yesterday, the index fell -2.06 points or -0.01% to 16735.02

European stock indices are trading higher today in the US morning snapshot:

  • German DAX, +0.69%
  • CAC France, +0.29%
  • British FTSE 100, +0.11%
  • Spanish ibex, +0.66%
  • Italian FTSE MIB, +0.65% (delayed by 10 minutes).

Stocks in Asia-Pacific markets were mostly higher:

  • Japanese Nikkei 225, +1.13%
  • Chinese Shanghai Composite Index, -0.27%
  • Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, +1.79%
  • Australian S&P/ASX index, +0.77%

If we look at the US debt market, yields are trading lower at the start of the week:

  • 2-year return 4.851%, -4.1 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was 4.941%
  • 5-year yield 4.473%, -5.6 basis points at this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.579%
  • 10-year yield 4.463%, -4.9 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was 4.556%
  • Yield at 30 years 4.612%, -4.0 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was 4.683%

Looking at the Treasury yield curve, spreads are mixed this time on Friday.

  • The 2-10 year gap stands at -39.1 basis points. At the same time yesterday, the gap was -38.7 basis points.
  • The 2-30 age gap stands at -24.1 basis points. At the same time yesterday, the gap was -25.9 basis points.

On the European debt market, 10-year benchmark yields are falling:

10-year European benchmark yields

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