JPMorgan downgraded its view on emerging currencies after the upside surprise in US CPI triggered a reassessment of the Fed’s rate path yesterday.
This surprise led the markets to revise their expectations as September approached, the Fed’s first possible cut.
In response to this, JPMorgan said:
This is when the likelihood of no (Fed) cut becomes likely enough for markets to re-rate, further raising risk-free rates and limiting the capacity of emerging currencies to perform or that of emerging rates to continue to resist an increase.
The bank returned to its market weighting after being overweight emerging currencies.
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