JPMorgan (JPM) now estimates the probability of a recession in the United States by the end of the year at 35%

JPMorgan Chase & Co. now estimates the probability that the United States economy The country could fall into recession by the end of the year, up from 25% at the start of last month.

The U.S. news “points to a sharper-than-expected weakening in labor demand and early signs of job losses,” according to JPMorgan economists led by Bruce Kasman The team said in a note to clients Wednesday that the probability of a recession by the second half of 2025 was 45%.