Joe Biden is on track to narrowly win the US presidential election, according to a shock poll.
The American president is slightly ahead of Donald Trump, both in the electoral college and in the popular vote – but the campaign is “on the knife’s edge”, according to the survey.
The poll suggests Mr Biden will win 287 electoral college votes, compared to 251 for his predecessor, when the country votes later this year.
The Stack Data Strategy survey, shared with the Mail, shows Mr Biden is on track to win – although Mr Trump is the bookies’ favourite.
It uses an MRP (multi-level regression and post-stratification) model which has been shown to be a more reliable predictor of election results in recent years.
Joe Biden on track to narrowly win the US presidential election, according to a shock poll
The American president is slightly ahead of Donald Trump (photo) in both the electoral college and the popular vote – but the campaign is “on the knife’s edge”, according to the survey.
The poll suggests Mr Biden will win 287 electoral college votes, compared to 251 for his predecessor, when the country votes later this year.
Mr. Biden announced his re-election bid earlier this year and gained enough support to secure the Democratic Party nomination. Mr. Trump will become the Republican nominee when the nominations are formalized.
The November 5 presidential vote will see the two men face off for the Electoral College votes, allocated to each state based on its population. They need 270 votes to win.
The election will likely come down to a series of key battleground states. The poll shows that while Mr. Biden is ahead in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, it is less than half a point. If Mr. Trump flipped Pennsylvania alone, he would win the election.
Mr. Trump’s path to victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016 ran through the Midwest, with Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as key states.
Mr. Biden flipped many of those states in 2020 and narrowly took back Arizona and Georgia. As things stand, only Georgia is on the verge of being toppled by Mr. Trump.
Joe Bedell, Head of Stack Data Strategy, said: “The 2024 election cycle is truly on a knife-edge.
“Based on our extensive research, President Biden is currently on track to hang on to the White House. But that’s by a very narrow margin: just one percentage point in some states.
U.S. President Joe Biden speaks at the North American Building Trades Unions 2024 Legislative Conference in Washington on April 24.
Union members wear Biden-Harris campaign t-shirts and hold signs before U.S. President Joe Biden speaks at the 2024 Legislative Conference of the North American Building Trades Unions.
“The Midwest states that carried Donald Trump to victory in 2016 are sticking with Biden for now, but it’s actually a draw in many of these key battlegrounds – there’s everything to play and every vote will count.
“The congressional race is just as close, with Republicans currently poised to win back the Senate and maintain control of the House. This is going to be a really exciting competition.
A poll by Stack Data Strategy last November predicted that Mr. Trump would win the electoral college despite Mr. Biden winning the popular vote. Mr. Biden is now narrowly ahead in both cases.
Data shows that since then, Mr. Biden has made steady progress across several demographic groups, particularly older, white, rural, suburban and less-educated groups.
He continues to struggle with 18-24 year olds, who currently win only 53 percent of their age group, although they won 65 percent of that group in 2020, according to exit polls .
Mr. Biden is also not making progress with Democratic core groups such as African-Americans, Hispanics and Asians, the study said.
Immigration, inflation and crime are the top three issues for voters, with 44 percent citing immigration and border security as one of the most important areas to them. Inflation and rising fuel prices followed closely behind, at 42 percent. Crime and public safety, at 30 percent, are slightly ahead of abortion, at 29 percent.
The survey also asked respondents who they would like to see as vice president of the two candidates, with Trump voters indicating Ron DeSantis, followed by Vivek Ramaswamy and Nikki Haley. Biden voters went for Kamala Harris, Michelle Obama and Mrs. Clinton.
This study also shows that Republicans are on track to win the Senate and House by narrow margins.
Stack Data Strategy surveyed 7,793 registered U.S. voters online between March 27 and April 10.
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