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Hajime Takata, a member of the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy board, in an interview with Japanese newspaper Nikkei published on Saturday.
- Japan’s economy is not yet in a phase where the central bank can end yield curve control (YCC)
- too early to start a discussion on concrete ways to end yield curve control
- careful messages would be needed when the time comes
Takata acknowledged that the risks have accumulated due to the extended period of ultra-easy policy.
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Takata basically says the same as Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda. Kuroda has said over and over again that the current policy is appropriate. This is from last week:
- during the realization of inflation the target is in sight, the BOJ will likely debate a path to an exit from accommodative monetary policy
- at present, however, the benefits of the current monetary easing outweigh the costs
It is useful to be aware that there are whispers in Japan about the reduction of the ease policy. Senior officials. For instance:
- BOJ’s Tamura says policy should be reviewed, says 2% CPI target may be too high for Japan
- Possible BOJ replacement Kuroda says the Bank should review its policy
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While an exit from YCC or any other step in Japan’s current ultra-loose monetary policy is not imminent, it is something to watch in the new year, most likely sometime after the first quarter. Governor Haruhiko Kuroda ends in April 2023. New blood could bring new ideas. The JPY
JPY
The Japanese yen (JPY) is the official currency of Japan and, at the time of writing, is the third most traded currency in the world behind the US dollar and the euro. The JPY is widely used as a reserve currency and is used by traders as a safe haven currency. Originally set up in 1871, the JPY has a long history and has survived several world wars and other events. This was followed by the establishment of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in 1882 and full oversight of the JPY by the Japanese government only in 1971. Japan has historically maintained a policy of monetary intervention, which continues to this day. The BoJ also adheres to a zero to near zero interest rate policy and the Japanese government previously had a strict anti-inflation policy. Any other changes in monetary policy by the central bank are closely watched by forex traders. Also, the overnight call rate is the main short-term interbank rate. The BoJ uses the call rate to signal monetary policy changes, which in turn impact the JPY. The BoJ also buys 10- and 20-year Japanese government bonds (JGBs) on a monthly basis to inject liquidity into the monetary system. The consistent yield on the benchmark 10-year JGBs helps serve as a key indicator of long-term interest rates. Economic data is also very important for the JPY. The most important of these releases in Japan are Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Tankan Survey (Quarterly Survey of Business Sentiment and Expectations), International Trade, Unemployment, Industrial Production and GDP readings. money supply (M2 + CD).
The Japanese yen (JPY) is the official currency of Japan and, at the time of writing, is the third most traded currency in the world behind the US dollar and the euro. The JPY is widely used as a reserve currency and is used by traders as a safe haven currency. Originally set up in 1871, the JPY has a long history and has survived several world wars and other events. This was followed by the establishment of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in 1882 and full oversight of the JPY by the Japanese government only in 1971. Japan has historically maintained a policy of monetary intervention, which continues to this day. The BoJ also adheres to a zero to near zero interest rate policy and the Japanese government previously had a strict anti-inflation policy. Any other changes in monetary policy by the central bank are closely watched by forex traders. Also, the overnight call rate is the main short-term interbank rate. The BoJ uses the call rate to signal monetary policy changes, which in turn impact the JPY. The BoJ also buys 10- and 20-year Japanese government bonds (JGBs) on a monthly basis to inject liquidity into the monetary system. The consistent yield on the benchmark 10-year JGBs helps serve as a key indicator of long-term interest rates. Economic data is also very important for the JPY. The most important of these releases in Japan are Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Tankan Survey (Quarterly Survey of Business Sentiment and Expectations), International Trade, Unemployment, Industrial Production and GDP readings. money supply (M2 + CD).
Read this term sees a headwind from current policy, especially as most other DM central banks hike rates. A change to YCC or any of the other elements of the easement policy would favor the yen, at the margin.
Hajime Takata, member of the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy board. Takata is one of two new board members appointed under Prime Minister Kishida.
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