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Japanese monetary authorities “have entered a new phase” in their management of the weak yen

Although neither the Japanese Finance Ministry nor the BoJ have confirmed Monday’s intervention, the evidence is mounting:

Via Bloomberg, here it is:

  • “As far as we can judge by looking at the evolution of the BoJ current account, we can say that there is a high probability that an intervention took place on the 29th,” said Teppei Ino, head of the BoJ. research on global markets in Tokyo at MUFG Bank Ltd. of around 5,000 billion yen is largely in line with expectations.

The roughly $30 billion figure is derived from the BoJ’s report released Tuesday that its current account will likely decline by 7.56 trillion yen due to fiscal factors including the issuance of government bonds and the tax payment on Wednesday. According to the Bloomberg article:

  • This is much larger than a drop of around 2.1 trillion yen estimated by private brokers, suggesting an intervention of around 5.5 trillion yen took place.
  • The analysis suggests that Japanese monetary authorities have entered a new phase in their foreign exchange management after a rapid depreciation of the yen beyond 160 to the dollar on Monday, following weeks of verbal intervention.

The Bloomberg article is closed, but here is the link if you can access it.

The bad news for the MoF is that we are on our way to another 160 test!

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