‘It has become a battlefield’: Mexico’s local candidates face deadly violence | Mexico

Breakfast with Juan Miguel Ramírez, candidate for mayor of Celaya, Mexico, is interrupted by the thud of military boots coming down the stairs.

Soldiers have camped on the roof of the family home since Ramírez replaced his predecessor, Gisela Gaytán, who was shot and killed on the first day of her election campaign in one of Mexico’s most dangerous cities.

Gaytán is one of 30 candidates who were assassinated on the road to Mexico’s June 2 elections. Hundreds more have abandoned or sought protection as organized crime groups vie for influence in government, eating away at Mexico’s democracy.

The violence partly reflects the scale of the elections, the most important ever held in Mexico. They will decide on the president’s successor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, as well as more than 20,000 positions at the federal, state and municipal levels.

All political parties were affected by the violence, but candidates and municipal officials were hit hardest. It is both the least protected layer of the state and the place where criminal groups seek to strike deals with authorities to strengthen their control over local territory and its businesses.

Several factions are fighting over Celaya (500,000 inhabitants), one of the largest industrial cities in the state of Guanajuato.

“It has become a battleground,” said Falko Ernst, a Mexico analyst for the nonprofit Crisis Group. “It’s not just drug routes, but oil siphoning, local extortion markets and retail meth markets.”

Since 2020, around one in a thousand people in Celaya have been murdered each year. It is the most dangerous city in Mexico to be a police officer: in the last three years, at least 34 police officers have been killed.

Hours before her death, Gaytán held a press conference in which she outlined her proposals to fight corruption and improve security in Celaya as a candidate for Morena, the party of President López Obrador. Celaya and Guanajuato have been governed by the conservative Pan Party for decades.

At the time, Ramírez, who helped design Gaytán’s platform, was working with the rest of his team at home.

They all had their phones on silent. “We only got the news when someone came to tell us,” Ramírez said. “At first we didn’t want to believe it. Then they showed us a photo.

“(Replacing her) was a difficult decision, because Gisela’s murder was not an ordinary murder,” Ramírez said. “They shot him in the neck, then shot him all over his body.

“They shot him several times,” he repeated, held back for a moment by the memory.

The state attorney general twice announced the arrests of suspects, claiming to have dismantled the cell that murdered Gaytán, but without providing information on the motive.

State governor Diego Sinhue said he was exploring all possible lines of inquiry – including the possibility that factions within Morena itself, unhappy with Gaytán’s choice as candidate, were involved.

“I did not receive threats, but I felt a hostile atmosphere from the state government,” Ramírez said, calling the announcement that Morena herself was the subject of a investigation into attempted “intimidation”.

The candidates themselves are not the only ones to be threatened.

Last week, the father of Saúl Trejo, Morena’s candidate for mayor of the neighboring municipality of Tarimoro, was shot and killed.

“Attacking relatives is a way of putting pressure on the candidate,” said Alejandro, Ramírez’s son and campaign manager. “Maybe they want to avoid direct confrontation with the soldiers, but they can reach you indirectly. »

The soldiers not only guard Ramírez’s house, but also that of his daughter.

Still, Alejandro seemed optimistic about the risks of a family-centered campaign.

“We’re used to it,” he said, before thinking for a moment. “Honestly, there is a lot of joy when you campaign. But sometimes I talk to soldiers and they mention little things. Like last night, we arrived after midnight and they told me a blue Kia was following us. And suddenly you become aware of what is happening.

Attacks on politicians are just “the tip of the iceberg” when it comes to criminal attempts to influence elections and gain entry into the state, Ernst said.

The violence extends beyond the electoral campaign and affects a wider range of actors. “Behind a murdered politician, there are surely journalists, activists and religious leaders who have been attacked,” said Sandra Ley, of the México Evalúa association.

Such attacks have multiplied during recent governments, without any party responding to them.

In some areas of Mexico, criminal control is now such that it is difficult to claim that free and fair elections are taking place.

“In (the state of) Guerrero there are places where organized criminal groups control many spheres of life – not only political, but also economic and social,” said Mónica Meltis, executive director of Data Cívica, which follows political violence. “They control when people can leave their homes.

“And then you have to wonder who is selected to make the decisions (in government),” Meltis added. “These are surely people who have agreements with organized crime groups.”

Overall, political violence is correlated with lower voter turnout – perhaps reflecting voters’ perceptions that candidates are pre-selected by criminal groups, or fear of violence during voting itself.

In Celaya, the consequences of Gaytán’s assassination will not be felt until June 2.

“It’s ugly to say, but with the assassination of Gisela, voting intentions for Morena increased,” Ramírez said.

“We tell people to go and vote as if they were going to the market or taking the children to school. Go vote like it’s just another day,” Ramírez said. “Go vote despite the fear we all have.”