Hezbollah could have surface-to-air missiles capable of threatening Israeli planes.
A recent Israeli strike appears to have damaged an Iranian-made Sayyad-2 missile.
The possibility of missiles will “force” the IDF to be more cautious over Lebanon, an expert said.
Much has been written about Hezbollah’s enormous arsenal of surface-to-surface missiles and rockets and the havoc they could wreak on Israel. A recent incident, however, briefly highlighted Hezbollah’s lesser-known air defenses.
After the Israeli Air Force targeted Hezbollah sites south of the Lebanese city of Sidon, images were released purportedly showing the remains of an Iranian-made Sayyad-2 surface-to-air missile. The Israeli military said the targeted Hezbollah sites “posed a threat to Israeli aircraft.”
Israeli media reported that these images were “apparently the first public evidence to suggest that Hezbollah possesses such missiles”, as had previously been claimed. Hezbollah has exchanged tit-for-tat strikes with Israel since the October 7 Hamas terror attacks, but air defenses suggest the Israeli Air Force would face a much greater threat over southern Israel. Lebanon than in the skies of Gaza.
The Sayyad-2 is a medium-range anti-aircraft missile developed by Iran by reverse engineering the American standard RIM-66 missile, SM-1, acquired by Tehran before the 1979 revolution. The Sayyad-2 has a range shorter than its successors. The most advanced, the Sayyad-4B, which Iran developed for its Bavar-373 air defense system, has an estimated range of 186 miles.
In October, a Hezbollah-appointed guide showed off some of the group’s firepower to visiting journalists and suggested they had long-range air defenses like the Russian S-300. “Do you think we don’t have an S-300?” he said. “If Iran has S-300s, Hezbollah will absolutely take the S-300s.”
It is unclear whether Iran attempted to transfer the Bavar-373, the Iranian equivalent of the domestically developed S-300, to Hezbollah with its Sayyad 4/4B missiles.
“Hezbollah’s air defense capabilities are very opaque,” Nicholas Blanford, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and author of the 2011 book “Warriors of God: Inside Hezbollah’s Thirty-Year Struggle Against Israel,” told Business Insider. “More is known about other systems in their arsenal than air defense, because Hezbollah uses them very rarely.”
“Nevertheless, if Iran has or can acquire an air defense system that meets Hezbollah’s needs, then one can assume that Hezbollah will likely have it,” Blanford said.
The Hezbollah expert also noted that possessing missiles like the Sayyad-2 “certainly increases the threat level” for Israeli aircraft compared to shoulder-fired missiles. He also stressed that Israel has “always maintained” that any acquisition by Hezbollah of advanced air defense systems amounts to a “red line.”
Since 2013, Israel has led an air campaign in Syria targeting Iranian arms deliveries to Lebanon in order to prevent Hezbollah from acquiring high-end systems. It has intensified this campaign since the 7/10 Hamas attacks, likely making it more difficult than ever for Iran to transfer weapons to Hezbollah through Syria. During this campaign, Israeli aircraft evaded and, at times, destroyed the Russian-built short- and medium-range Syrian Tor and Pantsir air defenses.
The discovery of the Sayyad-2 suggests that Iran has transferred at least some anti-aircraft missiles to its most valuable regional proxy.
“It has been reported that Hezbollah already possesses Sayyad-2 anti-aircraft missiles, and Friday’s Israeli strike reinforced those claims,” said Freddy Khoueiry, global security analyst for the Middle East and Africa. of the North within the risk intelligence company RANE. BI. “It is suspected that Hezbollah used the Sayyad-2 to shoot down some of Israel’s advanced Hermes 900 drones over Lebanon.”
“Hezbollah has boasted in recent years about the development of its air defense capabilities, and the discovery of Hezbollah’s possession of the Sayyad-2 demonstrates the extent to which it has obtained advanced anti-aircraft systems,” Khoueiry said .
Israel has experience destroying formidable air defenses in Lebanon. When it invaded the country in 1982, it launched a large-scale, coordinated operation to suppress enemy air defenses against a set of Soviet-built surface-to-air missile batteries that Syria had deployed in the River Valley. Bekaa in Lebanon.
Operation Mole Cricket 19 destroyed Syrian missiles and saw Israel’s new F-15 and F-16 fighters battle the Syrian air force, shooting them down. 82 Syrian planes without losing a single fighter.
While Hezbollah is unlikely to ever deploy such a large anti-aircraft missile network, some of its air defenses could nonetheless impact Israeli air operations over Lebanon.
“Generally speaking, this is unlikely to deter the Israeli Air Force from operating over Lebanon, but will likely force the Israelis to become more cautious of Hezbollah’s changing tactics and more advanced capabilities. advances, such as flying its fighter jets at higher altitudes or using stealthier aircraft like the F-35,” Khoueiry said.
“The Israeli Air Force is much more advanced and can bypass these air defenses, thereby retaining its immense air superiority, but Israeli drones and helicopters operating over Lebanon could be at greater risk, especially if the IDF expands its operations in Liban.”
Khoueiry doubts that Iran will transfer strategic systems like the Bavar-373 to Lebanon.
“It is more likely that Iran was able to transfer medium-sized and long-range defensive systems to Hezbollah,” Khoueiry said. “Larger air defense systems like the Bavar-373 are more difficult to transfer given their size, but also given that Lebanon’s geography is small and Hezbollah would not be able to operate them there correctly.”
The RANE analyst believes that if Iran deployed the Bavar-373 in the region, it would send it somewhere like Syria, although he believes this is unlikely at this stage.
“The discovery of the Sayyad-2 likely suggests that Iran has been able to transfer more of similar advanced defensive systems that Hezbollah is likely to use incrementally as the conflict escalates or in the case of a broader war, especially given the likely limitations of the war numbers they possess,” Khoueiry said.
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