Israel says it will retaliate against Iran. These are the risks this could pose to Israel

JERUSALEM (AP) — Israel is vowing to retaliate against Iran, risking further expanding the shadow war between the two foes into direct conflict after an Iranian attack this weekend sent hundreds of drones and missiles towards Israel.

Israeli officials have not said how or when they might strike. But as countries around the world urge Israel to show restraint and the threat of a multi-front war increases, it is clear that a direct Israeli attack on Iranian soil would result in major fallout.

Iran says it carried out the strike to avenge an Israeli airstrike that killed two Iranian generals in Syria on April 1. He has pledged a much tougher response to any Israeli counterattack on his soil.

As Israel focuses on its war against Hamas in Gaza and already battles Iranian-backed Hezbollah militants in Lebanon on a daily basis, the United States has urged Israel to exercise restraint.

U.S. officials say President Joe Biden told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the United States would not participate in any offensive action against Iran, and that the president made it “very clear” to Netanyahu “that we must think carefully and strategically about risks. climbing.

Israel’s war cabinet has spent the past two days debating its next move. Here are some essential considerations for their decision.

INCREASE ISRAELI ISOLATION

Israel’s successful air defense on Saturday night – carried out in tandem with the United States, Britain, France and Jordan – earned the country a brief moment of international support and sympathy after months of international isolation growing because of the Gaza war. The six-month offensive has killed nearly 34,000 Palestinians, according to local health authorities, and triggered a humanitarian catastrophe.

A coalition of international partners helped Israel defend itself effectively. The Israeli military claims that 99% of the weapons were intercepted, and few of them reached Israeli airspace. The attack caused only minor damage and injured one person: a 7-year-old girl.

This coalition worked under the direction of U.S. Central Command, which oversees U.S. forces in the region. It works closely with Israel and moderate Arab countries to form a united front against Iran.

Jordan, a country whose population is largely pro-Palestinian, joined the effort, although it disagrees with Israel over the war in Gaza, calling its participation self-defense.

It also appears likely that aid will come from regional power Saudi Arabia, which has no official relations with Israel. A map released by Israel shows numerous Iranian missiles flying over Saudi airspace.

Israel has been careful not to identify its Arab partners, but an Israeli Air Force official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the mission, said Israeli military planes were expected to fly “at eastern Israel” to shoot down missiles.

Yoel Guzansky, a senior fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies, a Tel Aviv think tank, said Israel would risk that goodwill if it acted alone.

“Israel can take advantage of this and buy itself a lot of credit right now, if it does not launch a massive retaliatory attack,” he said. “But if he attacks, a lot of credit is lost. »

The tacit support of Arab states does not mean that they will help Israel in a counterattack against Iran. Any air or missile response other than ballistic missiles – which would fly over the airspace of neighboring countries rather than through it – would require an overflight of surrounding countries, which would technically require Israel to obtain permission from those Arab neighbors, said Daniel Byman, senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, based in Washington.

“With Saudi Arabia and Jordan, there is sort of a question of route and access,” as to whether they would grant Israel overflight permission.

“From Iran’s perspective, this would be considered a hostile act,” Byman said. “And even though these countries don’t like Iran, they’re not very keen to be seen alongside Israel doing this. »

FEARS OF A MULTIPLE-FRONT WAR

A major retaliatory strike on Iranian soil risks triggering a full-scale regional war, so any response must be carefully calculated.

A direct strike on Iranian soil would almost certainly result in a brutal counterattack and risk inciting Hezbollah to launch further attacks. The Iranian-backed Lebanese group has a far more powerful arsenal than Hamas, but has so far been reluctant to engage in all-out war.

Some 60,000 citizens of northern Israel have already been forced to evacuate their homes due to ongoing exchanges with Hezbollah. More intense fighting would likely force them to spend even more time away from home.

A direct conflict would also strain Israel’s military, divert its attention from Gaza and hamper Israel’s war-weary economy.

Any major attack on Iranian soil could also undermine fragile U.S. support for the war.

Two U.S. officials said Israel had not yet informed the United States how it planned to respond. But the officials, speaking on condition of anonymity to describe the diplomatic discussions, said Israel had indicated that whatever it did, it would aim to prevent a worsening of the already tense regional security situation. This could indicate more limited action, such as a strike against Iranian proxies in the region or a cyberattack on Iran.

Tamar Hermann, a polling expert at the Israel Democracy Institute, says most Israelis favor some sort of military response, provided it is coordinated with regional allies, including the United States.

“If this is done without consultation and without agreement with the allies… support will be much less,” Hermann said.

MILITARY CAPACITY

The Israeli army is vastly superior to other armies in the region. It has a range of high-tech weapons, including F35 fighter jets capable of delivering long-range munitions. Experts say it has the capacity to directly strike Iran or its proxies in the region.

Fabian Hinz, a weapons expert and researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said Iran’s air force is “not even comparable.” He explained that the force is made up of a collection of aircraft dating from the 1980s and 1990s, some dating back to the reign of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi who ruled the country until 1979.

The extent of the Islamic Republic’s air defense system is less known, he added. Many of Iran’s missile sites and nuclear facilities are deep underground, making them difficult to reach, Hindz added. Israel may also need agreement from Gulf Arab countries to use their airspace – which is not guaranteed.

“I don’t think this will be a large-scale Israeli attack on many targets throughout Iran,” said Raz Zimmt, another senior researcher at Israel’s INSS. “It will probably be limited to one or two targets, perhaps inside Iran.”

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Associated Press journalists Matthew Lee and Ellen Knickmeyer contributed from Washington, D.C.