On Tuesday afternoon, Israeli forces launched a wave of air strikes on underground infrastructure near the European hospital in Khan Younis, sending plumes of gray smoke in the sky above the south of Gaza.
Israeli security officials say that the massive bombardment was intended for Muhammad Sinwar, considered as the de facto chief of the Hamas terrorist group in Gaza.
Sinwar assumed the Hamas military wing management following the July assassination of his previous leader Mohammed Deif, and later became the best commander of the group in the strip after his older brother Yahya Sinwar, who was the leader of Hamas, was killed by Israeli forces in late October.
According to Gaza health authorities managed by Hamas, at least 16 people were killed and more than 70 were injured during Tuesday strikes while Air Force planes have lost dozens of bombs around the hospital. Wednesday afternoon, it was not sure that Sinwar was among them.
Israeli intelligence thinks that Sinwar was inside the targeted tunnels at the time of the attack.
According to security sources, if he was inside, he was probably killed due to the force of the strike, but confirmation is still pending.
People near the site of an Israeli strike in Khan Younis in the Gaza Strip in the South on May 14, 2025. (Eyad Baba / AFP)
Even if he was killed, however, he is not clear how his assassination would have an impact on the terrorist group, whose senior management lives largely outside the Gaza Strip.
Israeli officials have described Sinwar as obstinate with regard to negotiations with Hamas for the release of hostages, and an obstacle to the conclusion of a cease-fire contract. But unlike his brother, who had exerted a considerable influence on the direction of talks and the strategic planning of the group, it seems that Muhammad Sinwar had only a limited role in one or the other in one or the other.
Empty of leadership
The death of the young Sinwar could feel warmly inside the armed wing of Hamas, where it would deepen a leadership vacuum cleaner, most personalities from the group living abroad since the start of the war with the attack on October 7, 2023 against the south of Israel.
There are two potential successors who can replace it in the management of the Hamas military wing and try to rebuild it during the current war.
The first is Izz Ad-Din Haddad, commander of the Gaza City brigade in Hamas, which is a long-standing element in the senior levels of the armed wing of Hamas. During the war, Haddad was promoted to supervise the entire Gaza Strip.
Izz Ad-Din Haddad, commander of the Gaza City brigade in Hamas, in a video published by the Hamas military wing, May 2022.
Haddad rarely appears in public, but in May 2022 was seen in a video threatening Israel. In January, he did Al-Jazeera and revealed his role in planning the massacre of October 7. His face was blurred for the interview.
Another candidate is Mohammad Shabana, commander of the Rafah brigade, who has crossed the ranks over the years. He would have survived an Israeli air strike in May 2024 by targeting a tunnel in Rafah. In March 2025, his wife and five children were killed in an Israeli strike.
Like Haddad, Shabana is relatively unknown in Gaza and did not appear in public during the war.
Muhammad Shabana (Center) The commander of the Rafah brigade of Hamas, attended a Hamas event in the Gaza Strip on June 7, 2023. (Hamas Media Office)
The two are veteran fighters from Hamas who could help the organization continue its operations against Israel and even recover a certain force.
But neither would have a significant influence on the Hamas strategic decision -making process, similar to the limited role played by Muhammad Sinwar.
Oh brother
While Yahya Sinwar was known as a figure in the central of Hamas with ceasefire negotiations and final arrangements on hostage agreements, there is little evidence that his little brother occupied a comparable position.
Yahya Sinwar was elected by Hamas members as the group’s Gaza leader in 2017 and officially appointed by Hamas upper members as a leader in August 2024. On the other hand, Muhammad Sinwar has never been part of the political office.
Despite its operation by hiding inside Gaza, unlike the rest of the high management of the group, based in Qatar, Yahya Sinwar would have been in the last word in the indirect negotiations between Hamas and Israel which took place largely in Cairo.
Gaza Hamas Yahya Sinwar in Gaza City on March 30, 2022. (Attia Muhammed / Flash90)
Israeli sources have indicated that the need to consult Sinwar for Hamas’ response in talks has led to significant delays, with a system developed by mediators used to transmit messages in both directions, according to the Wall Street Journal.
“We will have to wait for Yahya Sinwar’s response to the tunnels on each comma and detail of the negotiation,” according to Channel 12 news, an Israeli source of defense was cited in March 2024.
None of this happened on Muhammad Sinwar once he took over. Recent negotiations have been carried out with Hamas’ political leadership outside Gaza, and there was no report from delays due to the need to wait for Mohammad Sinwar’s contribution. Even the indirect canal between Hamas and the United States which led to the release of the hostage soldier Edan Alexander on Monday was led via senior Hamas in Qatar.
Khalil al-Hayya, member of Hamas, gives a television speech rejecting Israel’s offer from a truce and temporary hostage exit agreement, April 17, 2025. (Screen capture / x)
Although Muhammad Sinwar was considered the Hamas de facto chief, officially the group is managed by a five -member board.
All members are higher personalities in the political wing without direct involvement in military operations. Everyone has lived outside Gaza – some have been abroad for years, while others have left the band shortly before the start of the war.
The council includes the spokesperson for Hamas, Khalil al-Hayya, who is his high-end for Gaza, although it probably does little swing inside the band of its Gulf perch.
The other members of the Council are Khaled Mashaal, leader of Hamas abroad;
Zaher Jabarin, head of Hamas in the West Bank; Mohammad Darwish, head of the Shura council of Hamas, responsible for long -term strategic decisions; And Nizar Awadallah, member of the Hamas political bureau.
The Palestinians inspect the damage after the night of the Israeli strikes at the Nuseirat refugee camp in the Gaza Central Strip on April 29, 2025. (Eyad Baba / AFP)
Operating from deep basements in Gaza, in limited contact with the high management of the group and occupying little experience outside military affairs, it is difficult to see how Muhammad Sinwar could have been a decisive voice on the question of the ceasefire.
While the armed wing of Hamas has raised in any hostage agreement because of its direct custody of those which it removed from Israel on October 7, its influence on broader strategic decisions is limited.
If the death of Sinwar was confirmed, it will almost certainly have no impact on the positions or requests of the group in hostage and ceasefire negotiations, which will continue to be determined by management outside Gaza. The deepest impact could therefore simply be that the sides will no longer do so for their inability to progress on the release of hostages and the end of the war.
