Israel’s military campaign in Gaza has dealt devastating blows to Hamas: it has killed senior Hamas leaders and thousands of militants, struck the militant group’s tunnel network and undermined its ability to threaten Israel with rocket fire. .
When Hamas launched its attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, it hoped to trigger a regional war that would draw out its allies and lead to Israel’s destruction. Instead, she had to fight Israel almost entirely alone. Its allies were decimated in Lebanon, overthrown in Syria and weakened in Iran. The Houthis in Yemen have only managed to inflict occasional rocket and drone attacks, most of which were intercepted by Israel.
Despite its isolation, Hamas remains the dominant Palestinian power in Gaza, even after 15 months of Israeli bombing, controlling displaced camps and refusing to surrender. Although many Palestinians have criticized the group’s decision to carry out the October 2023 attack – sparking a war that has killed tens of thousands of Gazans and reduced towns to rubble – it has faced relatively little popular unrest .
Hamas celebrated the interim ceasefire agreement announced on Wednesday as an “accomplishment”, but its future role in Gaza remains uncertain.
The agreement provides for an eventual “permanent cessation of military operations and hostilities”, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly suggested he would resume attacks against Hamas after the release of some hostages held by militants.
Yet if the comprehensive, multi-step deal is implemented, it could allow Hamas to rebuild its ironclad control over Gaza, or at least allow it to maintain an influential role in the territory. Analysts linked to Hamas believe that Israel will struggle to resume war in the face of international pressure and that Hamas will play an important role in Gaza’s future.
“Hamas will be present in every detail in Gaza,” said Ibrahim Madhoun, an analyst close to the Türkiye-based militant group. “Trying to circumvent Hamas would be like burying your head in the sand. »
Mr. Madhoun acknowledged that Hamas’s military wing, the Qassam Brigades, had suffered losses, but said it was still “on solid footing” and had recruited new people to replace those killed. Antony J. Blinken, the U.S. secretary of state, said this week that U.S. officials had estimated that Hamas had recruited almost as many new fighters as it had lost in the war.
Rearmament will likely be more difficult for Hamas, which has exhausted much of its ammunition with no easy way to replenish its stocks, especially since its main external supports have been so severely weakened.
But if Israel decides to return to war, it could continue to weaken the group, eliminating its new commanders and targeting what remains of its government.
In such a scenario, Israel could find itself on the verge of occupying Gaza, which could “cut off Hamas but antagonize everyone else,” said Tamer Qarmout, a professor of public policy at the Institute for the Study superiors in Doha.
Some former Israeli security officials have argued that the deal leaves Hamas on stable footing, even whether or not Israel returns to war.
“Hamas gained a lot of points with this deal,” said Michael Milshtein, a former military intelligence analyst specializing in Palestinian affairs. “They included in the agreement the two things they demanded from the beginning: an end to the fighting and Israeli withdrawal. »
And if Israel restarts the conflict, it will enter “a war of attrition with no light at the end of the tunnel,” Mr. Milshtein said. “Hamas is ready to drag Israel into the mud of Gaza. »
Still, Hamas will likely have to offer some compromises if it wants enough aid to rebuild Gaza to flow into the territory. So far, Hamas leaders have expressed a willingness to abandon civilian governance in Gaza, but without dismantling its military wing – a dynamic that analysts say would be similar to Hezbollah’s role in Lebanon before Israel hits him.
“I think everyone, including Hamas, understands that to solve the problems of the people, Hamas must stay out of the forefront,” Mr. Qarmout said, adding that he must reach an agreement with the internationally recognized Palestinian Authority to share power.
While Hamas supporters acknowledged that the October 2023 attack caused enormous suffering to Palestinians, they refused to express regret over the attack that left 1,200 people dead, mostly civilians. They highlighted how the subsequent Israeli bombardment of Gaza reignited global interest in the Palestinian cause and damaged Israel’s reputation.
Saudi Arabia, which was close to sealing diplomatic ties with Israel before the war, presented the creation of a Palestinian state as a precondition for a deal.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant are wanted for war crimes by the International Criminal Court. And the State is accused of genocide before the International Court of Justice. Israel categorically denies both accusations, but its international reputation has been tarnished like never before.
“Before the war, no one was following what was happening in Palestine,” said Fouad Khuffash, an analyst close to Hamas based in the Israeli-occupied West Bank. “Now everyone is watching,” he added.
In a speech Wednesday, Khalil al-Hayya, Hamas’s top negotiator, called the October attack a “military achievement” that would remain “a source of pride for our people.”
For many civilians, the future with Israel and Hamas is bleak.
“We are talking about a people caught between a state prepared to act with total brutality and a group prepared to incite that state to act with brutality,” said Akram Atallah, a Palestinian columnist from Gaza.
Patrick Kingsley And Aaron Boxerman contributed to the reporting of this article.
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