Is Nitish Kumar set to take oath as CM with BJP support? What does this mean for Bihar? – First position

Everything is almost finalized. Speculation is at an all-time high that Nitish Kumar will dump the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and INDIA bloc, and join hands with the BJP once again.

Various sources have reportedly indicated that the Janata Dal (United) {JDU} leader will resign and take oath again as chief minister on Sunday (January 28). If reports are to be believed, Sushil Kumar Modi will take oath as the Deputy Chief Minister of Bihar. According to News18, the JD(U) sought time at the Raj Bhawan this evening.

If Nitish Kumar switches to the BJP on Sunday, it would be his fifth political turn – a move that has even earned him the title of ‘Paltu Ram’ in politics.

We analyze what went wrong with the JD(U)-RJD alliance that brought Nitish back into the arms of the BJP and what this change would mean for the INDIA bloc.

A swearing-in on Sunday?

Several reports said that the Bihar chief minister would resign this weekend and would then take oath as chief minister on Sunday with the support of the BJP.

It is important to note here that in the Bihar numbers game, the JD(U) has 45 seats, while the RJD has 79, and the BJP 78. The Congress has 19 seats, while the CPI (ML ) has 12, two are with the CPI(M) and the CPI, the Hindustani Awam Morcha (secular) has four seats and the AIMIM has one, plus an independent legislator. The majority of the 243-member Bihar Assembly is 122.

A NDTV The report said Nitish Kumar’s likely swearing-in on Sunday with the BJP will also see the swearing-in of two BJP deputy chief ministers.

Rumors about the possible decision grew stronger after the JD(U) chief canceled all his commitments for January 28, including speaking at a public meeting. Furthermore, the governor of Bihar, who was to go to Goa tomorrow evening, canceled his plan.

When asked about this, Sushil Kumar Modi replied IndiaToday that “closed doors can open,” calling politics a “game of possibilities.” However, he refused to comment further on the matter.

At this time of uncertainty, former Lok Janshakti Party president Chirag Paswan revealed that he was in touch with top BJP leaders, but termed as hypothetical the question of whether the chief minister Nitish Kumar would be acceptable to him as the new partner in the NDA.

He reportedly told the news agency PTI“I have been in constant touch with senior BJP leaders. I spoke to them before coming here last night, at a meeting of party workers. I’m going back to Delhi. I canceled my trip to late Karpoori Thakur’s village in Samastipur and Sitamarhi, which I wanted to visit after paying homage in Ayodhya.

What led to this eventual split?

Rumors of a disgruntled Nitish Kumar have been doing the rounds for quite some time. Some JD(U) leaders reportedly said that Nitish was unhappy with the INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance) bloc and its lack of coordination.

According to JD(U) leaders, the Congress is responsible for this situation and they said the Grand Old Party’s refusal to discuss seat sharing was a major bone of contention. Moreover, Nitish Kumar is not happy as he failed to get a seat in the alliance, which he says befits his stature. A News18 The report said that it was conveyed to the JD(U) by the Congress that Mamata Banerjee might have a problem with the appointment of Nitish Kumar as convener. This seems to have angered Kumar so much that he told the Congress that they might as well go for Lalu Prasad Yadav as convener.

Kumar is also upset that even though he was instrumental in bringing Mamata Banerjee and Arvind Kejriwal to the same table as the Congress, he has not received his due.

For the 72-year-old, who also has the honor of being the longest-serving chief minister of Bihar, his alliance with the RJD in the state is also shaky. Nitish Kumar is angry with the Lalu Prasad Yadav-led RJD, blaming it for impacting governance. He also criticized RJD ministers in his cabinet for taking “important decisions” without his consultation, the NDTV.

However, a tweet from Lalu’s daughter Rohini Acharya appears to be the final straw. Earlier, Nitish Kumar, at an event to mark Karpoori Thakur’s birth anniversary, had taken pictures of political parties promoting his family members in politics. Reacting to the comments, Lalu’s daughter had written on X: “Some people declare themselves as pillars of socialism, but their ideology changes like the wind. »

“Often people cannot see their own faults but continue to shamelessly throw mud at others,” she wrote in another tweet. Moreover, these messages have since been deleted.

However, it seems that the damage is done. At the time, surprisingly, the BJP had sided with Nitish and demanded an apology from Lalu’s daughter.

Another “palti” in preparation?

If Nitish Kumar does indeed change sides on Sunday, he will rightly be called ‘Paltu Ram’ of Bihar politics.

The JD(U) chief had first parted ways with the BJP before the 2014 general elections. In the run-up to the November 2015 elections to the 243-member state Assembly, Nitish joined hands with the RJD, his rival led by Lalu Prasad, the Congress and other small parties to form a “Grand Alliance” which won 178 seats, with Nitish. taking over as chief minister.

In 2017, he left the Mahagathbandhan and joined hands with the BJP again. But this comeback did not last long and in August 2022, he again distanced himself from the BJP and joined hands with the RJD.

What is happening to the INDIA bloc?

Nitish’s possible ‘ghar wapsi’ with the BJP does not bode well for the INDIA alliance. But for now, it seems the RJD and Congress don’t seem too perturbed. A Congress leader from Bihar, Prem Chandra Mishra, said ANI“I can say with confidence that Nitish Kumar will remain in the alliance… (he) has decided to oust the BJP and we trust him.”

RJD party spokesperson Shakti Yadav said talk of tie-up reflected a “scared” BJP and Deputy Chief Minister Tejashwi Yadav spoke of the state government keeping its promises in terms of employment.

But if this happens, it is a win-win for the BJP and will be detrimental to the INDIA group, which is already in the doldrums with West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and Punjab Chief Minister Bhagwant Singh Mann, who announced that their parties, the TMC and AAP will contest solo in the Lok Sabha elections scheduled for April-May.

With the contribution of agencies