The Iranian attack on Israel on Saturday is harmful not only for the Middle East, but also for Russia’s war in Ukraine, as new fault lines emerge between Moscow and Tehran.
Michelle Grisé, a senior policy researcher at RAND, a US think tank, described in a commentary how a broader conflict in the Middle East could impact Russia. The commentary was first published in The National Interest magazine on April 11 – days before Iran launched more than 300 drones and missiles at Israel on April 13.
Grisé’s article follows a strike on the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria, on April 1. Israel did not claim responsibility for the strike, but Iran held it responsible and promised to retaliate.
“While it has been argued that Moscow is profiting from the chaos in the Middle East – by diverting Western attention and resources away from Ukraine – it stands to lose greatly if the Israel-Hamas conflict escalates into a more serious war. wide,” wrote Grisé.
Russia has established itself for years as a military and diplomatic player in the Middle East.
Moscow has taken advantage of the instability in Syria and Libya to establish itself as guarantor of regional security, but an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East would not have the same effect, writes Grisé.
This is partly due to Moscow’s preoccupation with the war in Ukraine, Grisé wrote. The partnership between Russia and Iran has also deepened over the past two years as Russia’s heavily sanctioned economy has become increasingly isolated.
Iran is now a key military supplier to Russia. An Iranian “ghost fleet” has also been transporting Russian oil around the world since the start of the war in Ukraine, allowing Moscow to continue to collect its oil revenues.
However, if Iran were to become embroiled in a wider conflict, it would not be able to provide the same level of support to Russia.
“A broader regional conflict, particularly if it involves direct conflict between Israel and Iran, would limit Iran’s ability to continue serving as a military supplier to Russia,” Grisé wrote.
Furthermore, “Tehran may demand more support while Russia has limited capacity to provide it,” she added.
The Group of Seven, or G7, is already considering additional sanctions against Iran over its attack on Israel – which could spill over to Russia.
“We will consider additional sanctions against Iran in close cooperation with our partners, in particular on its drone and missile programs,” Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, said in a statement on Sunday.
Wider conflict in the Middle East could increase China’s influence in the region at Moscow’s expense
Even though Russia is preoccupied with the war in Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin has managed to position himself as a potential Middle East broker amid the war between Israel and Hamas.
But Putin’s plan could collapse if the war spreads regionally, as Beijing also scrambles to play the role of peacemaker.
“Russia would be particularly sensitive to Chinese attempts to encroach on its influence in the Middle East,” Grisé wrote in his commentary.
This is all the more true since Beijing managed to obtain results in March 2023, by negotiating a détente between Saudi Arabia and Iran, Grisé added.
Given that Russia’s heavily sanctioned economy is already dependent on China, it would be even more exposed to Beijing’s whims if Moscow fails to retain what little global influence it still has.
In a statement released on Sunday, the Russian Foreign Ministry expressed “extreme concern” over what it called a “new dangerous escalation” in the region.
Calling for restraint, the Russian Foreign Ministry said it expects regional states to “resolve existing problems through political and diplomatic means.”
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