A decades-long shadow war came to light overnight as Iranian drones and missiles lit up the night skies of Israel and the occupied West Bank. The Tehran operation was highly choreographed, apparently designed to minimize casualties while maximizing spectacle.
It was a complex mission. More than 300 drones and missiles flew over Iran’s neighbors including Jordan and Iraq – both with US military bases – before entering the airspace of Iran’s mortal enemy Israel . Israel’s allies helped shoot down the bulk of those weapons but could not prevent what has long been seen as the Middle East’s doomsday scenario, the Islamic Republic’s first-ever attack on Israel.
Israel’s legendary Iron Dome air defense system did not disappoint the Israelis, many of whom surrendered in bunkers. Only a small handful of sites were attacked, including a military base and an area in the Negev desert, injuring a Bedouin child, while the dome repelled one of the largest drone attacks in history.
Yet it was an operation that seemed destined to fail: When Iran launched its killer drones from its own territory, about 1,000 miles away, it gave Israel several hours’ notice.
The symbolism of the attack did the heavy lifting. Rather than firing from one of the neighboring countries where Iran and its non-state allies are present, this was a direct attack from Iranian territory against Israeli territory. This compromised Iran’s ability to damage Israel because it deprived the operation of the element of surprise.
Yet for about four hours, the world held its breath as guns whizzed across the night sky. They were balls of fire hovering overhead as spectators from three different countries filmed footage that seemed to herald the start of a cataclysmic war.
The delivery time meant that Israel and its regional partners The partners could prepare Israel’s defenses, and the operation was little more than a terrifying display of fireworks. When Iran’s permanent mission to the United Nations tweeted that the operation was “complete,” it was easy to get away with thinking that the Islamic Republic was only barking and not biting.
The strike served as retaliation for Israeli airstrikes on the Iranian consulate in Damascus in early April, which killed a top commander, and was in line with the expectations of U.S. intelligence and analysts. Iranian leaders felt compelled to strike Israel in order to reaffirm its position as a regional power and dispel the notion that the country was a paper tiger. It doubled its show of force by launching the operation from its own territory and not by proxy in Syria, Lebanon, Yemen or Iraq.
But Iran also had to try to avoid starting an all-out war. Its economy has buckled under the weight of Trump-era sanctions, and discontent is growing in the streets over the government’s repressive policies. On Sunday, Iran not only appeared to have took into account Israel’s robust air defense systems, but relied on them. The relatively high degree of U.S. intelligence on the operation also suggests that Iran may have engaged in backdoor dealings with Western leaders. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian said he had given 72 hours’ notice to neighboring countries, including key US allies. To contain the consequences of their own operation, they seemed determined to foil it.
The style of attack is reminiscent of Tehran’s response to former President Donald Trump’s targeted assassination of Iran’s most famous general, Qassem Soleimani, in January 2020. Tehran gave US troops 10 hours of advance warning before raining huge ballistic missiles on American military positions in Iraq. , including al-Asad Air Base. The attack took its toll, leaving gaping craters in the ground, but caused no known American casualties. In doing so, Iranian forces accidentally shot down a commercial plane taking off from Tehran airport, killing more than 100 passengers and fueling public anger against a regime increasingly seen as incompetent.
At the time, the Iranians were preoccupied with demonstrating what their army could do rather than what it was prepared to do. The United States did not retaliate, thus avoiding a regional war.
Four years later, Iran’s strategy may not play out the same way. Israel has already promised to respond. The United States has publicly stated that it will not participate in Israeli retaliation, which could reassure Iran. Yet Netanyahu’s Israel is proving increasingly unpredictable. Iran’s threats of tougher action in the event of further escalation may fall on deaf ears in Israel, to its peril.
In a future strike against Iran, Tehran may not hesitate to use Israel’s northern border as a launching pad. A week before the attack, a Lebanese source close to the matter ruled out that Hezbollah, Iran’s most powerful partner armed group, was part of Iran’s first retaliation for the April 1 consulate strike.
However, the source warned that Hezbollah and other Iranian-backed fighting forces “will be prepared for the step that follows the Iranian response.”
Strong Israeli retaliation could push Iran to take an even tougher stance beyond its Israeli policies. Conservatives have consolidated their control over Iran’s government in recent years, and there is growing resistance to Western pressure to curb the country’s feared uranium enrichment program.
“There must be some satisfaction in some circles in Washington DC and Israel because Iran’s limited response reflects the power imbalance favoring Israel,” wrote Trita Parsi, a Washington-based Iran analyst and vice-president. executive president of the Quincy Institute, on
“But think further and you will realize how this episode will strengthen those in Tehran who believe Iran must go nuclear.”
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