Iowa vs. Iowa State, Oregon vs. Boise State: College football odds

How can you not love Oklahoma State’s offense?

With Doak Award-winning RB Ollie Gordon leading the attack behind an experienced offensive line (over 200 career starts with seven seniors), the Pokes can move the ball consistently on the ground while setting up valuable play-action passes for ever-improving QB Alan Bowman (over 1,200 play-action passing yards in 2023).

While I have questions about OSU’s defense, it could improve with the return of nine starters from last year’s unit.

In total, the Pokes have 19 starters from last year’s Big 12 championship team, ranking first nationally in experience.

Conversely, Arkansas ranks 88th in experience.

I’m worried about the offensive line (62 career starts) and the linebacking corps (they lost all four starters from last season).

There are major depth issues on defense, and on offense, it’s unclear how Boise State transfer QB Taylen Green will fare in the SEC after three years in the MWC.

I always want to bet on more experienced teams against less experienced teams in September.

The former is usually more willing to play out of conference.

The Bowman-Gordon duo should overcome a questionable Razorback defense that ranked 74th in EPA per carry allowed last season.

The choice: Oklahoma State -10.

IOWA STATE (+2.5) over Iowa

I’m bullish on Iowa State. With 19 starters returning from last year’s roster that has improved dramatically after a slow start, I think the Cyclones could explode this year.

I love QB Rocco Becht, 2023 Big 12 Freshman of the Year.

Two of his top three receivers from last year return alongside the five starters on the offensive line.

The Cyclones are strong and experienced in the secondary.

While the Hawkeyes still have an elite defense, I’m not ready to believe that Tim Lester suddenly fixed a woeful offense after a 40-0 win over FCS Illinois State.

I’m not overreacting to the results of Week 1 FBS vs. FCS, and I’m far from ready to invest in QB1 Cade McNamara.

At a minimum, this should be a sloppy game, with few points scored and decided by one possession, and I’m willing to take the points in a points-at-a-premium battle.

Cyclones head coach Matt Campbell is 31-16 ATS as a three-point or longer underdog in his career.

The choice: Iowa State +2.5.

OREGON (-19.5) vs. Boise State

The Ducks were awful against FCS Idaho (24-14 win) last week, but they dominated the box score, tripling the Vandals in first downs (31-10) and more than doubling them in total yards (487-217).

Oregon was unlucky with poorly timed penalties, which skewed the final result.

Again, I’m not overreacting to the results of Week 1 FBS vs. FCS, so I remain optimistic about the Ducks as national title contenders.

While Boise State is among the favorites to represent the Group of Five in the College Football Playoff, I significantly downgraded the Broncos after their performance against Georgia Southern.

Are you betting on college football?

I had concerns about the defense, but it’s much worse than I imagined.

Georgia Southern scored 45 points on 99 total plays, generating 0.30 EPA per carry (90th percentile) with 10 explosive plays (12 percent, 85th percentile).

What do you think Dan Lanning, Dillon Gabriel and the Ducks will do? They could drop 60.

Although superstar RB Ashton Jeanty has annihilated Georgia Southern’s weak and undersized defensive line (a school-record 269 yards and six touchdowns), he will be less effective against tougher competition.

Oregon has talent and experience on defense, with nine starters returning from last year’s unit.

Lanning should focus on Jeanty, trying to force inexperienced QB Maddux Madsen into uncomfortable passing situations.

Last week: 1-2. Clemson (D), Syracuse (D), Hawaii (F)
Season 2024: 1-2.