Iowa Republicans drop Trump for DeSantis in caucus probe

WASHINGTON — Republicans in Iowa are turning away from former President Donald Trump in favor of rising star Ron DeSantis, according to a new poll.

A poll released Monday by Neighborhood Research and Media indicated that 32% of likely caucus goers would make the 44-year-old Florida governor their first choice. Another 30% said their first choice would be the 76-year-old former president.

The result represents a 23-point change in the poll from June, when Trump led DeSantis 38% to 17% – and a 46-point change from November last year, when the 45th president led 56 % at 12%.

“With support barely half of what it was a year ago at a time when DeSantis’ vote nearly tripled, Trump is emerging as a serious underdog in the race,” wrote Rick Shaftan of Neighborhood Research and Media. in his analysis.

Another 30% of respondents said they were undecided as to who their first choice would be, while no other potential candidate exceeded double-digit support. Former Vice President Mike Pence would be the first choice of 3% of respondents, while former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds, South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem and the former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Ben Carson each got 1% support.

When the second and third picks were tallied — a key dynamic in a caucus state like Iowa — DeSantis had 48% support, Trump had 42%, Pence had 6% and Noem had 3%.

The survey is the latest to show growing distaste for the former commander-in-chief, who announced his third straight run for the White House on November 15.

On the same day, a Morning Consult/Politico poll taken after the midterm elections showed that 65% of voters said Trump should ‘probably’ or ‘definitely’ not run – with 53% saying he shouldn’t. “certainly not.

The Iowa survey also follows a recent national YouGov poll that showed voters favored DeSantis by seven points over Trump. The poll, released Friday, was the first poll of the 2024 cycle to show the Florida governor ahead of Trump among Republican voters nationwide.

The YouGov poll indicated that 42% of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents favored DeSantis over Trump to lead the party’s presidential ticket, while 35% remained loyal to Trump.

The Neighborhood Research and Media poll polled 393 likely Republican caucus attendees between Nov. 14 and 18. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus five percentage points.