The death toll from the catastrophic wildfires in Los Angeles has reached 24 and is expected to rise. The 16 direct deaths caused by the Eaton Fire alone make it the fifth deadliest wildfire in California, while the Palisades Fire, with eight deaths, ranks as the 14th deadliest fire in the state. ‘State.
However, the final toll from the disaster is likely to be much higher, once the health effects of toxic fumes from the fires are fully taken into account. Additional deaths can be expected in the coming years due to the large-scale disruption to people’s lives caused by such a colossal disaster – similar to what has been seen following major hurricanes, which have been linked to thousands of indirect deaths 15 years after their strike.
Read: Silent Calamity: The Health Impacts of Wildfire Smoke
In a 2020 policy brief, Marshall Burke, associate professor of Earth system science at Stanford University, wrote: “Our research suggests that many more people likely die from smoke exposure during major fires than perishing directly in the fire, and many more people are sickened. »
Wildfire smoke contains high levels of PM2.5, particles no larger than 2.5 microns in diameter. These have long been associated with increased risk of illness and death because they are small enough to enter the lungs and bloodstream, where they can harm the cardiovascular and respiratory systems.
A 2024 study, “Mortality attributable to PM2.5 of California wildfires from 2008 to 2018,” found that in 2018, the year the town of Paradise and several other communities burned, wildfire smoke could have prematurely killed up to 12,000 Californians .
And in the 11 years from 2008 to 2018, wildfire smoke likely contributed to more than 52,000 premature deaths across California – nearly 5,000 deaths per year – with an economic impact of more than $430 billion. dollars, according to the study.
This is a problem that goes beyond California. A 2024 article, “Long-term Exposure to PM Wildfire Smoke2.5 and mortality in the contiguous United States,” found that long-term exposure to wildfire smoke was likely responsible for more than 11,000 deaths per year between 2007 and 2020. Globally , 46,000 to 99,000 people die each year from inhaling PM2.5 released by wildfires, with approximately 13% of these deaths attributable to climate change, according to 2024 study, “Attribute human mortality due to particle fires2.5 to climate change.
The future health effects of wildfire smoke in a warming world are of great concern. A 2024 paper, titled “The Mortality Burden of Wildfire Smoke Under Future Climate Change,” reveals that increasing wildfire smoke in the United States due to climate change could lead to 27,800 additional deaths and $244 billion in damages per year by 2050 under elevated conditions. warming scenario. This represents a 76% increase over the estimated averages for 2011-2020, the authors wrote.
“Our research suggests that the health cost of climate-driven wildfire smoke may be one of the largest and most costly consequences of global warming in the United States,” the authors added.
Several million people in the Los Angeles area endured a two-day period of intense smoke that created air quality in the “unhealthy” red range at the height of the fires, with higher levels in the range “dangerous” near fires, according to EPA data. These air quality assessments only take into account the small particles tracked by the EPA: PM2.5 (particles with a diameter of 2.5 millimeters or less). Last week’s air quality rating of “Unhealthy” doesn’t take into account the remarkably toxic composition of the smoke resulting from the urban nature of these fires.
A potential analogous situation occurred during the 2018 Camp Fire that burned more than 18,000 structures in Paradise, California: significant increases in lead and zinc occurred in the air. The presence of lead is of particular concern because lead exposure has been linked to high blood pressure, reproductive effects, and cancer. Infants and young children are particularly sensitive to low levels of lead, which is known to cause behavioral changes and learning deficits. Wildfire smoke also contains toxic carcinogens similar to those found in cigarette smoke.
Due to the large population exposed to dangerous toxic fumes from last week’s fires, it is plausible that over the next few years hundreds, if not thousands, of Californians will die prematurely from breathing them. Of particular concern are the many elderly or sick people who were evacuated and forced to breathe very high concentrations of toxic smoke from burning buildings and vehicles. News footage showing dozens of nursing home residents in wheelchairs being thrown into smoky streets was particularly heartbreaking to see, as I knew these vulnerable people would inevitably suffer high rates of health complications and deaths in the coming weeks.
“Short-term exposure (days or weeks) to wildfire smoke has been strongly linked to increasing severity of asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and COVID-19; inflammation or infections, including bronchitis and pneumonia; emergency room visits; and hospital admissions,” according to the California Air Resources Board.
And a 2024 article reported that “long-term exposure to wildfire smoke has been correlated with higher mortality rates from a variety of diseases, including cardiovascular, ischemic (related to blood flow), digestive , endocrine and chronic renal diseases.
The spread of communicable diseases among evacuees will also have a negative impact. January is the peak of flu season and California experiences “very high” levels of flu, according to the CDC. The flu and COVID-19 will likely spread quickly among the tens of thousands of people forced to evacuate to shelters or temporary housing with friends or family.
Read: The hidden health toll of hurricanes
In a stunning paper published in 2024, “Tropical Cyclone Mortality in the United States,” Rachel Young and Solomon Tsiang found that the average hurricane that made landfall in the United States between 1930 and 2015 caused 24 direct deaths . However, they observed an increase in excess mortality – mortality beyond what would otherwise be expected during this period – which persisted for 15 years, totaling 7,000 to 11,000 excess deaths per storm. This burden is 300 to 480 times higher than government estimates of direct deaths and is equivalent to 3.2 to 5.1 percent of all deaths in the entire contiguous United States.
The largest category of deaths was due to cardiovascular disease (36%), while 12% of deaths were due to cancer, “consistent with some evidence of extreme weather stress affecting long-term health,” write the authors.
Young and Tsiang hypothesized five ways hurricanes could have triggered excess mortality. Four of these factors may apply to a disastrous wildfire like the one California just experienced:
(1) Economic disruption could alter household economic decisions, potentially resulting in worse health outcomes. For example, a person who loses their job may also lose their health insurance. Or, retirement savings could be used to repair property damage, which could reduce future health care costs.
(2) Changes on social networks could affect future health. For example, people of working age could move, which would change the social support provided to older people left behind.
(3) Tax adjustments by state or local governments in response to the disaster may impact future health outcomes. For example, restructuring budgets to support the recovery could reduce spending on health infrastructure.
(4) Increased physical and mental stress can affect long-term health..
The fifth factor put forward by the scientists was that changes in the natural environment could harm health – for example, ecological changes could redistribute disease vectors or flooding could expose populations to harmful chemicals. A flood is very different from a wildfire in how it affects the natural environment, so this factor is less relevant to wildfires than the other four.
Read: How to protect yourself from wildfire smoke
In addition to sending my prayers and positive thoughts to the victims of the Los Angeles fires, I have supported several charities. I encourage everyone to help in any way they can. Below are Bluesky articles from two of the charities I have contributed to.
Bob Henson contributed to this post.
Only 28% of U.S. residents regularly hear about climate change in the media, but 77% want to know more. You can present more climate information to Americans in 2025. Are you going to contribute $25 or whatever you can?
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