In Putin’s state of mind: which Trump team can expect from Moscow during negotiations on options for the war between Russia and Ukraine

Last week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov rejected a proposal reportedly from President-elect Donald Trump’s team seeking to resolve the conflict in Ukraine, which will pass the four-year mark next February.

“Of course, we are not satisfied with the proposals made on behalf of the representatives of the president-elect’s team to postpone Ukraine’s membership in NATO for 20 years, as well as to introduce a holding contingent peacekeeping force composed of British and European forces in Ukraine,” Lavrov said. said in an interview with TASS, the official Russian government news agency.

Lavrov’s statement likely foreshadows the aggressive stance Russian President Vladimir Putin will take toward Trump over Ukraine. Reaching a deal with Putin, even for a negotiator as strong as Trump, will likely be nearly impossible. Here’s why.

At his annual news conference last month, Putin all but ruled out striking a peace deal with the government of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Responding to a reporter’s question whether he had any preconditions for starting negotiations on Ukraine, Putin denied having any. However, in clarifying his response, Putin said Russia would “sign documents” “only with representatives of legitimate authorities.”

PUTIN’S “FOG OF WAR” MISSILE FUNS EXPERTS, BUT IT’S HIS PLAN

He claimed that Zelensky and his government were “illegitimate,” explaining that “the Ukrainian Constitution does not contain provisions to extend presidential authority, even in times of war.” Zelensky’s mandate expired on May 20. “You know, if someone runs for elections and gets legitimacy, we will talk with anyone, including Zelensky,” Putin added.

A lawyer by profession, Putin claimed that only the Verkhovna Rada, the unicameral parliament of Ukraine and its president, Ruslan Stefanchuk, were “legitimate”, because the Ukrainian constitution allows the extension of the powers of the Rada in times of war. However, the Rada and its president “are entirely under the leadership of the regime,” he said, likely referring to the fact that Zelensky’s party, the Servant of the People, controls the majority in the body after the elections. legislative elections of 2019. Putin argues that the illegitimacy of Zelensky, who is technically above Stefanchuk, makes the Rada and its decisions illegitimate.

Putin also ruled out a ceasefire during his press conference. A Russian journalist asked if it was “feasible” to “simply bring in a ceasefire at any time” to “stop the war,” referring to Trump and his Russian-Ukrainian envoy, Lt. Gen. Retired Keith Kellogg, who he said had talked about ending the war before Trump’s inauguration on January 20.

Putin replied: “Suspending (combat operations) for a week means giving the adversary the opportunity to gain a foothold in its positions. Giving him the opportunity to rest, to obtain the necessary military equipment, ammunition …” Next, Putin asserted that “a relatively long truce period will allow the adversary to train and retrain,” arguing for maintaining momentum as Russian forces exhaust “their weapon systems, their ammunition, and most weapons “. and above all, the personnel of the Ukrainian army. »

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Putin is confident that he can continue until Ukraine capitulates or until the deal is made on Russia’s terms, which is unacceptable to Washington and most likely even to Trump’s team . Putin wants to keep 20% of Ukrainian territory, plus Crimea, legal guarantees that Ukraine becomes a neutral state with no path to NATO membership, the removal of US and Western sanctions against Russia and recognition by Western territories annexed as Russian.

Putin is confident he can conduct tough negotiations, even with Trump. From the point of view of combat potential – weapons, troops, defense economy and military-industrial production capacity – Russia, which the Pentagon itself considers a “close competitor” to the US military, holds a strategic advantage crushing on Ukraine. With Russia’s population three times that of Ukraine, the labor force also overwhelmingly favors Moscow.

Putin has continued to mobilize additional forces throughout this conflict, including through covert means. Russia has already deployed a force 15% larger than at the start of the war. In September, Putin ordered, by decree, a further increase in Russia’s armed forces, adding 180,000 troops. The Russian army now numbers 2.38 million men, including 1.5 million active military personnel. Putin demonstrated he could recruit personnel from his allies, adding 11,000 North Korean troops to Russian troops fighting in Ukraine.

Putin even mocked Trump’s team, albeit indirectly. The Russian dictator challenged Washington in a “21st century high-tech duel” to test US air and missile defense systems against Russia’s Oreshnik hypersonic missile, which is believed to target kyiv. “We are ready for such an experiment. But is the other side ready? Let’s organize such an experiment, such a technological duel and see what happens. I think it would be useful for us and for the American side.”

Putin said that to begin negotiations, Trump should first contact him. Responding to an NBC reporter’s question about when Putin would meet with Trump and what kind of concessions he would offer, given that he “will be a weaker leader,” Putin replied: “First of all, I don’t know when he and I will meet, because he doesn’t say anything about it. I haven’t spoken to him in over four years. Putin added that he was “ready” to speak with Trump “at any time,” if he wishes.”

Putin denied being in a weaker position, saying he had a “different point of view,” saying: “I believe Russia has become much stronger over the last two or three years. For what ? Because we are becoming a real country. sovereign nation. We don’t depend on much. Indeed, in anticipation and in the aftermath of Western sanctions imposed on Moscow, in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Putin put the Russian economy to the test of sanctions and reduced its dependence on regard to foreign technology, particularly Western technology.

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Putin’s measures included launching an import substitution program in Russian manufacturing industries to boost local production, dedollarizing Russia’s sovereign wealth fund and foreign exchange reserves, spearheading BRICS and an initiative aimed at replacing of the American dollar by an alternative currency as the first currency of international exchange and the strengthening of economic and military relations with non-Western countries, both the allies of the United States, such as India, and its adversaries, such as the China, Iran and North Korea.

Given that Putin will certainly play a tough game and that the United States’ limited influence over Russia – unlike China, for example – the Trump team will have to look for creative solutions if the master of the “art of the deal » wants to achieve its objectives. election promise to bring peace to Ukraine.

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