Nicolas Sarkozy’s ex-adviser is sounding the alarm over the events of the conflict in Ukraine. In a tribune at Le Figaro, he asks in particular to reflect on the causes of a “gear” that could lead, according to him, to a more extensive war.
Author of a column in Le Figaro of May 12, entitled “We are walking towards war like sleepwalkers”, Henri Guaino explained it on BFM TV the next day, considering that “for the moment” the West was in the “gear” of war .
“While no one basically wants war, everyone helps prepare for it, everyone ends up being responsible for its outbreak,” he told the news channel continuously.
Nearby Figaro, the former adviser to Nicolas Sarkozy noted that “by extending NATO to all the former Eastern countries up to the Baltic countries, by transforming the Atlantic Alliance into an anti-Russian alliance, by pushing back the borders of the European Union to those of Russia, the United States and the European Union have awakened in the Russians the feeling of encirclement which has been at the origin of so many European wars”. “Each of the protagonists lends to the other his own ulterior motives, his own intentions even his own ambitions”, he further analyzed on BFM TV.
In his argument, the former politician explained that Russia had “a problem with the extension of the West to its borders, with the risk of a form of total westernization, of dilution of the Russian world in Western society”. “Russia has always been a country that wants to imitate the West […] which was even fascinated by the civilization of the Enlightenment but which nevertheless wants, at the end of the ends, to remain Russian”, he continued in his analysis.
He recalled that in 1991, “the victors of the Cold War” had accepted the idea that Russia was a “great power”, and became a future partner. “That’s what the West didn’t do,” lamented the former deputy for Yvelines. “Everyone warned” including the United States, underlines Henri Guaino, who affirms that if the primary responsibility for “aggression” fell in his opinion to Russia, it was necessary to have a reflection on the causes of wars like that -this.
For Henri Guaino, we must stop NATO membership at the Russian border
He also explained that NATO’s desire to transform its originally “anti-Soviet” alliance into an “anti-Russian alliance” was “playing with fire”. The spiral that Henri Guaino fears is notably linked, according to him, to the supply of arms and the absence of negotiations. “We are making this war last,” he said. Among the elements of negotiations, Henri Guaino recalls that in 2008, Ukraine wanted to join NATO. France and Germany had opposed it in order to “preserve the balance of power”, he noted.
Let’s keep saying we’re in the right, we represent the side of good, and then there’ll be no way out
According to him, there is no reason for NATO to open “the door” to new memberships: “Integrating into NATO […] Finland, Sweden, Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and perhaps tomorrow Belarus – in the event of a Maidan revolution – this is not acceptable for Russia, it must be recognized”, insists Henri Guaino .
“Let’s continue to say that we are in our right, we represent the camp of good, and then there will be no way out, that’s called a tragedy,” he warns. “Are we able to stop this relentless chain? Yes or no?” he adds.
He also criticizes the American speech which according to him aims not to deliver weapons “to save Ukraine” but in aims “to weaken Russia so that it never starts again”. He draws a parallel with the identical speeches “of the 1918 victors vis-à-vis Germany”. “That then made Germany the most dangerous country in the world,” he says.
“I don’t know if we can avoid this war, I don’t know if we could avoid that of 1914 [ou] of 1939, the categorical moral imperative that we have is that yes or no, we try to do everything to break this tragic spiral?
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