I had my TEMU order. But what’s going on the next time I want something?

If you have not followed my TEMU saga, let me catch up with you: I (reluctantly, and with an appropriate shame) Love Temu! I was nervous after President Donald Trump put an end to the escape which allows him to send us cheap garbage from China. But then I obtained my last order – without problem, delays or additional costs.

So does that mean that my Temu habit is sure?

I spoke to some experts in world trade. They have said to me: TEMU is probably safe for the moment, but in the long term, my relationship with TEMU could stop sad and screaming.

This is because for the moment, Temu sends everything that American customers buy in American warehouses. This means that these orders – like mine last week, for the favors of the birthday party of some children – avoided the additional costs that Trump slapped on orders from China.

But very soon, these American warehouses will lack things. So what’s going on? The experts to whom I spoke said, this is where things become difficult. Here are some potential results:

• The United States and China released a trade agreement that lowers or ends the prices, and Trump Backpedals when it closed the so -called minimis escape that allowed TEMU – and Shein – to send things to the United States directly from Chinese warehouses without additional service.
• TEMU recruits companies to start storing millions of articles in American warehouses to reconstruct those that will soon be empty.
• TEMU makes companies in a way to do low -cost shit in countries outside of China which are not subject to such high prices. (For the sparkling pistol that was made outside of Beijing could now be made outside Hanoi, Vietnam.)

All these things would be a huge change in relation to the way TEMU does business now. TEMU is a market where sellers in China have a lot of things, and TEMU is only the intermediary, acting as an exhibition hall for these goods to American customers. After American customers have completed their baskets, the sellers sent orders directly from their warehouses to the United States – operating the minimis fault which eliminates tasks for packages sent directly to customers who have a value less than $ 800. (This is the escape that Trump closed.)

So obtaining a brand new army of sellers – this time in the United States – would be a large elevator. A spokesperson for Temu said it was exactly what the company does-“actively recruiting American sellers to join the platform”.

“This decision is designed to help local merchants reach more customers and develop their businesses,” the spokesman told BI. We do not know how the sellers would obtain the items they would sell. If they were manufactured in China and imported for sale in the United States, probably, the seller should always pay a price – even if the end customer avoided minimis costs.

And in addition, I’m not sure that sellers based in the United States will be able to offer the same ultra-basic prices as Chinese sellers. (If they can’t, buyers like me could go to Amazon.)

Temu will eventually run out in the United States

Willy C. Shih, professor at the Harvard Business School who focuses on world supply chains and manufacturing, said TEMU could have enough stock to last throughout the summer, or a little beyond. “I talked to some people who have enough inventory to last until the holiday season,” he said. “But, then, they must finally be reconstituted.”

Yannis Bakos, assistant professor at the Stern School of Business in Nyu who focuses on electronic commerce, said Temu and Shein eventually run – if the prices do not change.

“Although certain strategies can offer short -term reductions, long -term sustainability of their American operations is questionable if the prices remain,” said Bakos. “If they try to increase prices and move the high -end, it would be difficult for them to compete with Amazon, so their best option would be to focus on increasing their growth in other markets, such as Europe.”

Already, TEMU and Shein strongly strengthened their advertisement in Europe in April, Reuters reported. He said local downloads there were ultra-raw shopping applications increased, but this growth was slow.

Is this the new normal from TEMU?

However, Shih speculated that there was a last tactic for Temu – and for those who love it, like me: wait.

Finally, the United States and China will conclude a kind of commercial transaction, and very high prices could relieve. Will this happen soon? This could be a risky decision to put too much hope in this basket after Trump said that little girls may just need to live with two dolls instead of 30 this Christmas.

After all, he could in fact believe that Americans must break their consumption culture. (How much you take this at your nominal value.)

As for me? I obtained my last TEMU order, inexpensive and fast. And what is more American than being satisfied with “I have mine?” What’s going on next time … I’m not sure.