The powerful Hurricane Erin has undergone surprisingly rapid changes in its intensity – a phenomenon that has become much more common in recent years when the planet warms up. It quickly became a rare category 5 for a while on Saturday, before weakening and becoming a broader system on Sunday while it takes place through the Atlantic Ocean in the North of the Caribbean.
Erin went from a category 1 hurricane with winds of 75 MPH at 11 a.m. Friday to a category 5 with winds of almost 160 mph just over 24 hours later. He put Erin in history books as one of the fastest Atlantic hurricas ever recorded, and potentially the fastest intensification rate for any storm before September 1.
Erin was still “a formidable category 4 hurricane” on Saturday evening, said National Hurricane Center. At 2 a.m. on Sunday, he was weakened more to a category 3 hurricane while becoming a wider system, the center said.
With maximum -sustained winds almost 125 mph and higher gusts, its hurricane winds now extend around 25 miles from the center, and the tropical winds extend around 205 miles.
It should come back to the force of category 5 because it undergoes an eye replacement cycle, a process that will lead to the growth of the storm Windfield.
Rapid intensification is when a hurricane gains at least 35 MPH wind speed in at least 24 hours. Fast extreme intensification tends to occur historically in September and October.
Even more hurricanes quickly intensifies in the Atlantic, because the oceans and the atmosphere warm up in response to the pollution of fossil fuel and the global warming it causes. This probably makes Erin another example of the growing extremes of a warming world.
In addition, Hurricane Erin is now one of the 43 category 5 hurricanes recorded in the Atlantic – which makes it rare, but not as rare in the context of the recent seasons of the hurricane – because the advanced force becomes easier for storms to be made. This is the 11th category 5 hurricane recorded in the Atlantic since 2016, an unusually high number.
It is also unusual to see a category 5 storm so early in the season, especially outside the Gulf of Mexico. Mid-August is roughly at the time of the rush activity of hurricanes, but the strongest storms tend to occur later in the season.
The Atlantic 2025 Hurricane season is now the fourth consecutive season to present a category 5 storm, with two last year, the Hurricane Beryl and Milton.
Hurricane Erin should always avoid a direct blow on any land mass, passing north of Puerto Rico, then curling the North-North-East in the Atlantic Open between the East Coast and the Bermuda next week. In doing so, it should double or even triple size.
Erin is approximately 150 miles northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico and around 160 miles northwest of Anguilla on Saturday evening. A flash flood warning was issued for the north of Puerto Rico until midnight on Saturday and the tropical storm watches remain in force for the Turkish and caïcos islands and certain parts of the downwind islands.
The storm outdoor bands will continue to produce areas of strong precipitation until Sunday through the northern islands of the subvent, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, said the Hurricane center. Sudden floods considerable, landslides and mud shifts are possible, he added.
The storm should produce currents of surfing and potentially fatal tear along the beaches of the Bahamas, a large part of the American east coast and Atlantic Canada next week, according to National Hurricane Center.
Erin supported winds nearly 150 MPH this Saturday evening, according to National Hurricane Center.
Intensity fluctuations are expected for the rest of the weekend, because Erin brings rain and strong gusts of wind to the Caribbean islands to the south. Erin should persist until Monday, when he will start to weaken slowly.
The powerful Erin wind field should at least double or triple size next week, which has led to rugged beach conditions on the East Coast.
The storm just passes north of the downwind islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend while making a progressive turn north. It is unlikely that this will put direct land on one of the northeast Caribbean islands, although tropical alerts are in place for some of these areas warning potential threats.
Erin should follow the north above the Western Atlantic next week, far from the United States and the Bermuda, but that could change if the storm becomes more or less strongly than expected. Even if the forecasts remain consistent, Erin could cause problems for both places in the form of raw surfing and dangerous rip currents.
n The anticipation of the hurricane, the Captain of the American Coast Guard for the port of San Juan ordered that the ports of Saint-Thomas and St. John in the US Virgin Islands, and six sea ports in Puerto Rico are closed to all the inputs unless it is specifically authorized.
The rough seas and the rolling trees around the islands will continue at the beginning of next week. Wind and rain in mind – which could sometimes be heavy – also have an impact on the islands as Erin slips.
Some spots could record 2 to 4 inches of rain this weekend with localized quantities up to 6 possible inches in the heaviest showers. Intense rains could also cause sudden floods or mudslides.
There are a lot of fuel in the region so that Erin can draw because sea surface temperatures are much warmer than normal. They are not as hot as the record levels reached in 2023 and 2024, but are still much warmer than they would be in a world that did not warm up.
Erin is the first major Hurricane of the Atlantic of the season. Four other systems have traveled the Atlantic Basin before Erin – Andrea, Barry, Chantal and Dexter – but none was stronger than a tropical storm.
The first hurricane of the season is generally formed around August 11, so Erin was slightly late, in particular compared to the first arrivals in recent seasons. There had already been three hurricanes – Beryl, Debby and Ernesto – by August 15 of last year.
There will be more chance that tropical systems are developing this month. The longer -term forecasts of the Climate Prediction Center highlight the same part of the Atlantic Erin developed as a place to monitor the new storms at least in early September.
August, it is when the tropics generally come to life: the busiest section of the season generally extends from mid-August to mid-October. The forecasters expect a tropical activity greater than the average this year.
