This morning, The Athletic reported that the Cubs have no plans to buy at the deadline. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer essentially confirmed that in a conversation with reporters just before tonight’s game against the Brewers.
Hoyer said management will approach the deadline with an eye toward the future.Where we are right now, I would say we’re only going to make moves for 2024 – unless things change over the next week or so – we’re probably not going to make a lot of moves that are only going to help us for this year.” , Chicago’s chief baseball officer said (link via ESPN’s Jesse Rogers).If these measures help us for 2025 and beyond, I think we are exceptionally well positioned.“
While Hoyer offered a slight warning that things could change this week, there’s not much ambiguity about how he expects to handle the deadline. He spoke candidly about the team:bad position“as for this season.”We just dug a hole with below-average performance for two months. It doesn’t affect how I see the organization or how I see things going forward, but it certainly affects 2024.” , Hoyer said.
It’s clear the Cubs aren’t going to pursue impending free agents. Hoyer didn’t characterize Chicago’s approach as a buy or sell. That leaves open the possibility of trying to acquire MLB talent that is under team control beyond this season. While that’s not unprecedented (the Reds’ acquisition of Trevor Bauer and the Mets’ agreement for Marcus Stroman (in 2019 there are examples of teams acquiring controllable players at the deadline when they are not in contention), this is not common. The Cubs should outbid teams motivated to get these players for a potential playoff push this summer and future seasons.
Chicago’s system is considered one of the strongest in the league. That gives Hoyer and his staff the ammunition to make a deal for a controllable, top-tier player, but the more likely outcome is that the Cubs will settle for moving a few short-term veterans. Hoyer dismissed any suggestion of a complete dismantling, saying it’s “this will not be an option so (there is) no reason to go through the hypothesis.” This makes it unlikely that they will trade key pieces who are under contract or team control beyond this season (e.g. Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Ian Happ, Michael Busch).
Prioritizing 2025 would normally put a team’s rentals on the table, but the Cubs don’t have much to offer in that regard. Kyle Hendricks, Drew Smyly (whose deal includes a $2.5 million buyout on a $10 million mutual option) and recent minor league signee Jorge Lopez are the only true rentals. Hendricks is playing for $16.5 million and has a 7.00 ERA. While he has pitched better of late after a disappointing start to the season, interest would be minimal. The Cubs could try to pay nearly the entire contract to find a trade partner. Hendricks also has the right not to be traded after reaching 10 years of MLB service time (at least the last five with his current team) earlier this season.
Smyly has a 2.92 ERA in 37 innings as a long reliever. That solid earned run prevention isn’t supported by mediocre strikeout and walk rates (21% and 10.2%, respectively). Between his $8.5 million salary and the aforementioned buyout option, there will likely be limited interest in the veteran lefty.
Cody Bellinger Bellinger has the option to opt out of the final two years and make $50 million on his contract. He had a great but not very valuable season, batting .269/.331/.410 in 344 plate appearances. It would be a tough deal to sell even if Bellinger were healthy, and he was placed on the disabled list a few weeks ago with a broken finger.
If the Cubs wanted to more or less get things back on track in 2025, they would be in for a very quiet deadline. Still, while they aren’t likely to part with long-term key pieces, Chicago could consider deals for role players who are controllable beyond this season. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported over the weekend that the Yankees and Red Sox are looking for starters Jameson Taillonwho will earn $18 million per year between 2025-26. Rogers reports that the Cubs have also received interest from the third baseman/DH Christophe Morel and the lifters Hector Neris, Mark Leiter Jr. And Tyson Miller.
Morel, 25, is under team control through 2028. He’ll be a borderline candidate for the Super Two threshold for early arbitration next offseason. The Cubs certainly aren’t under any financial pressure to move him, but it’s possible they’d be willing to move on if another team sees Morel as a regular starter. Morel is a good athlete with big power potential who has never found a defensive spot. Chicago has tried him unsuccessfully at second base and all over the outfield in previous seasons. They gave him 562 innings at third base this year, hoping his high-end arm strength would work at the position. Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Average both gave him very poor grades for his time at the hot corner.
This season hasn’t been a great one for Morel at the plate either. While he’s hit 18 home runs, he’s hitting .202 with a .304 ERA. That’s a step down from the .241/.311/.471 slash line Morel posted to start the season. While that’s clearly not ideal, it hides some intriguing developments from a process standpoint. Morel has increased his walk rate by a few points while significantly reducing his strikeouts. After striking out over 30% of his at-bats in his first two seasons, he’s striking out 23.8% of the time this year. An unsustainable .221 ERA has kept that from materializing into better results.
While the Cubs expect Morel’s offensive output to normalize with an increase in his walks average, his lack of defensive ability makes him a tough player to evaluate. The Cubs could hope to trade third base to last year’s first-round pick Matt Shaw as early as next season. They don’t have many short-term alternatives. If the Cubs traded Morel, they would likely rely on Miles Mastrobuoni And Patrick Wisdom to cover the position for the remainder of the season.
The Cubs should be open to offers on anyone in their bullpen. Neris has managed the ninth inning since Adbert Alzolay Neris has been out with a forearm strain. The offseason signing has been unsteady, walking 16.1 percent and throwing four saves in 17 attempts. Neris had a 1.71 ERA for the Astros last season, but it’s up two runs this year because of his control issues. The 35-year-old right-hander is playing on a $9 million salary and has a match option for next year. It’s currently a team option, but it would convert to a player option if Neris plays 24 more games.
Given his inconsistency, the Cubs probably won’t want Neris back at that price. They’d probably be happy to find a trade partner, but the possibility of being hit with a $9 million player option if Neris hits his trade target could make other teams wary. There’s less risk when it comes to Leiter and Miller. The former has struck out 34.4% of opponents with a 50.6% strikeout rate over 34 innings. He’s playing on a $1.5 million salary and is under arbitration control through 2026. Miller, whom the Cubs acquired from Seattle in May, has broken out with a 2.04 ERA while striking out nearly 26% of opponents over 35 1/3 innings.
Whether the Cubs will receive offers that are attractive enough to move someone from this group remains to be seen. They aren’t completely buried in the Wild Card standings, sitting 3.5 games out of the final playoff spot (currently held by the Mets). With four middling teams to jump, management has decided they have a slim chance of making the playoffs at best. How much they’re willing to reshape the roster for the 2025 campaign will be one of the biggest questions of the coming week.
