This creates a situation in which the perception of the trial is of particular importance.
And we now have one of our first glimpses of how the trial might play out politically. A CNN poll suggests Americans remain skeptical about the process and the importance of the trial. But it also suggests that Trump’s claims of victimization are still far from prevailing — and that his own conduct may be to blame.
The main conclusions of the survey:
- Just 28% say a conviction would disqualify Trump from the presidency — a double-digit proportion fewer than those who say the same for Trump’s other three indictments. And only 33 percent say he did something illegal. (33% say his conduct was unethical but not illegal.)
- 56 to 44 percent of Americans say they are not confident the jury will reach a fair verdict.
- But only 34% of respondents agree with Trump’s claims that he is being treated harsher than most other defendants. Nearly half say they are either treated the same (13%) or more leniently (34%).
- Trump’s conduct does not appear to be doing him much favor. Americans believe by a margin of 17 points – 42 percent to 25 percent – that this was somewhat inappropriate rather than somewhat appropriate. (The others are undecided.)
It’s worth taking these findings piece by piece.
The first is not very surprising, because it corresponds to previous polls. Americans are skeptical that Trump broke the law here in a way that they simply aren’t in his major controversies. They also consider that this affair involves significantly lower stakes for their November votes.
The most relevant and interesting findings are the other three mentioned above.
As for the fact that the majority is not convinced that the verdict will be fair, it is worth asking why. Yes, even many Democrats are skeptical about this matter; only 64% say Trump is guilty. And perhaps it reflects some concern that Manhattan’s very blue population is biased against a former president on the red side.
But it also seems possible that part of it is because people are worried that Trump will get away with it. After all, Trump has proven elusive when it comes to efforts to hold him accountable, and it only takes one juror to hold his own. (Many noted that one juror said he received his news from Trump’s Truth Social social media platform.)
In fact, the survey shows that almost half of Democrats do not have confidence in the jury’s verdict. Given that nearly two-thirds of them think he is guilty and another recent poll showed that only 4 in 10 Democrats think Trump will be convicted, it would seem likely that many of them are worried lack of responsibility.
It could also simply reflect Americans’ increasingly widespread lack of trust in our legal institutions. An AP-NORC poll last week, for example, showed low levels of confidence not only among jurors, but also among judges handling cases against Trump and before the U.S. Supreme Court.
Which brings us to the more Trump-centric conclusions. Some on the right have pointed to just 13% who say Trump is being treated like the other defendants, as if that bolsters Trump’s claims of persecution; Breitbart claimed that the poll “appears to confirm Trump’s argument that efforts to bankrupt him and throw him in jail are politically motivated…
But it shows no such thing; half of those who think he is not treated like the other defendants say he is actually treated with more indulgence (another possible nod to this widespread lack of trust in legal institutions). Fewer than three in ten independents and moderates believe Trump was treated more harshly.
This poll is just the latest to suggest that Trump’s allegations of persecution have not really penetrated beyond his devoted base. What seems penetrating, however – and may well weaken Trump’s claims of persecution – is the perception that Trump is not behaving properly. Although many reserve judgment, the 17-point margin by which Americans believe Trump’s behavior is inappropriate rather than appropriate suggests he is not proving to be a very sympathetic defendant.
Strikingly, even the percentage of Republicans who vouch for the appropriateness of Trump’s conduct falls far short of a majority – 48% – and independents say it was inappropriate rather than appropriate in a ratio of 2 to 1.
If this perception persists, it will be much more difficult for Trump to argue that things like silence orders and rulings against him are truly unjust and symptomatic of a “militarized” justice system. And if he fails to convey this message, the final verdict becomes more problematic for him.
washingtonpost
