Before the Trump administration begins to strike targets through Yemen to reopen the world expedition, before many of its senior officials inclined a journalist in a group cat to plan these strikes, in fact even before Donald Trump took office in January, many in his administration did not think that Houthi’s attack was such a good idea.
“We are preparing the preparation of tens of billions of dollars for what is really equivalent to a bunch of Ragtag terrorists who are Iranian proxies,” then re-with-rep. Mike Waltz, now advisor to the national security president, told Politico last year. “Iran is at the heart of the question.”
“It is really a mark of the way our foreign policy is offbeat that we are now entailing military attacks in progress in Yemen – Yemen! – Without any real perspective, they will be effective,” said Elbridge Colby, appointed to manage the Pentagon policy, published on the X social media site last year.
Since the group chat on the Signal trade messaging application has become a public last week, the Trump administration argued that the scandal only distracts the “very successful” air strikes that it started earlier in March. Even more, it is designed the campaign as a return to American force after years of “deferred maintenance” within the framework of the Biden administration.
But as some of the previous declarations of officials show, the air campaign shows a change in the way some members of the Trump administration see the Middle East and American interests there. Strikes have certainly increased since last year, experts said. But they represent a high degree of continuity with the Biden administration strategy – and are likely to encounter the same problems.
“That we were going to make the Houthis cry for the mercy of a sooner is extremely improbable,” said Michael Knights, analyst at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
An “relentless” campaign
The most recent attacks in Yemen began on March 15, when the American central command reached 30 targets through Yemen belonging to the Houthis, a terrorist group largely supported by Iran. Immediately, the administration sought to distinguish these attacks from the approach of its predecessor.
“Joe Biden’s response was pathetically weak, so the Houthis without restraint continued,” said Trump on his social application Truth shortly after the start of the attacks.
Shortly after the War of Israel in Gaza began in the fall of 2023, the Houthis began to attack commercial ships passing through the Red Sea, where 15% of world trade has passed until this year.
In response, the United States and a group of other countries began a working group intended to protect these shipping routes. The American army sent aircraft carriers, destroyers and other ships to the Red Sea to escort ships, and also started routine air strikes against Houthi sites in Yemen.
The problem, the officials of the Biden Pentagon later recognized, was that these strikes did not solve the root problem. Even when attacked, the Houthis could restore their stocks with the support of Iran, and the group won prestige by continuing its Salvos.
“One thing we have learned from our experience is not to underestimate the resilience of the Houthis,” said Daniel Shapiro, responsible for Pentagon policy in the Middle East until January, who supports the current air outing campaign.
The Trump administration’s response was to strike harder. So far, he has made more than 100 strikes across Yemen, said the press secretary of the White House, Karoline Leavitt, said last week, and that changed the objectives. While the old administration has mainly held on military sites – think of the ammunition deposits or the launch areas – this is much more ready to strike enemy leaders, including those closer to civilians in urban areas.
“We have destroyed command and control facilities, air defense systems, weapon manufacturing facilities and advanced weapon storage places. Although Houthis still maintain capacities, it is largely due to almost 10 years of support provided by Iran,” said an American defense official.
These attacks occurred much faster than the old countryside. And they take place alongside a greater effort to inspect the ships entering Yemen for equipment intended to replenish the Houthis, potentially slowing the group’s recovery.
“This campaign will be relentless to degrade their capacities and open shipping routes in the region,” said Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell during a briefing on March 17.
Overvoltage price
However, external experts say that these tracks will probably remain closed for months, if not indefinitely.
Maritime companies have almost uniformly chosen to redirect the Red Sea, reasoning that it is more important for a ship to arrive safely than quickly. This has in fact increased its income, which will make it more difficult for any country to force a return to the status quo.
“The Houthis have reshaped worldwide navigation, and they did it more profitable for world expedition,” Knights said.
The other problem is that the Houthis have been here before. In fact, the group has been in an almost constant state of war for 20 years – against Saudi Arabia, the Yemeni government, the United Arab Emirates and now the United States.
“The problem with the air war there is that it will not work,” said Ben Friedman, analyst at Defense Priorities, a reflection group that requires a more limited American foreign policy.
The Houthis started their attacks on March 11, after a short break following a ceasefire in Gaza. An easier way to stop their attacks may be to put pressure on Israel to allow more humanitarian aid to reach the Palestinian people, argued Friedman, although American officials are wary of giving the impression that the Houthis fight a noble cause by attacking commercial ships.
Instead, the administration continued to degenerate the military campaign.
Last week, he extended the deployment of the Harry S Truman Carrier Strike Group already in the Red Sea and announced that he would bring another from the Indo-Pacific, leading to a few weeks of overlap before the Truman’s departure. He also brought back B-2 furtive bombers and rare air defense batteries.
Meanwhile, air strikes continue, including the tours over the weekend that hit the areas of Yemen.
“We hit them every day and every day – – more and more,” Trump posted on Monday, threatening Iran again if he continued to support the group.
The Red Sea has not reopened for sea companies, and the military push has many democrats at the congress concerned by the mixture of means and ends.
“They are aware that this will have preparation costs,” said a Democratic Assistant in Congress, speaking anonymously according to the Pentagon office policy.
Criticism can resemble the kind of partisan size that often occurs in Washington. But last year, it was not an entirely democratic question – at least for Waltz.
“We use a lot of ammunition,” said the representative then during a March 2024 audience, describing the Biden administration strategy. “We are burning the preparation.”
Noah Robertson is the Pentagon journalist at Defense News. He previously covered the national security of the Monitor Science Christian. He holds a baccalaureate in English and the government of the college of William & Mary in his hometown of Williamsburg, Virginia.
