How Trump’s tariffs could affect the United States, Canada and Mexico

Decades of trade integration in North America are on the brink of major disruption due to tariffs that President Trump says he wants to impose on Canada and Mexico, the United States’ main trading partners.

And while the tariffs are expected to inflict pain on all three countries, they would cause more damage to Canada and Mexico, smaller economies deeply dependent on the United States.

Officials in both countries breathed a brief sigh of relief on Monday when Mr. Trump did not include the tariffs in his storm of executive orders on his first day in office. But the relief was short-lived: Later in the evening, Mr. Trump told reporters that he still planned to keep the tariffs in place.

“We’re looking at a 25 percent reduction on Mexico and Canada,” Mr. Trump said in the Oval Office. “I think we will do it on February 1.”

Trade experts are weighing whether the tariffs will materialize or whether the threat alone is just a negotiating tactic aimed at extracting concessions from Mexico and Canada. Both countries avoided high tariffs under the first Trump administration, and both are betting that the United States needs Mexico and Canada to take on China, a much bigger rival.

Economists and policymakers say the tariffs would cause lost revenue and jobs and force consumers to pay more for many products.