How Trump cost America Le Monde – Politico

And while the US stock markets plunged after his announcement of radical prices out of 180 countries this week, Trump rushed that all would rebound and rename each other soon. America is heading for glory days. Vice-president JD Vance, for his part, complained that criticisms took too much short-term point of view: “We are going to have a booming stock market for a long time because we reinvest in the United States of America,” he said.

But the heaviness that Trump displayed, all based on cockamatic calculations and the deeply imperfect economy, is as exasperating as King George’s restrictive commercial practices towards the American colonies – and at least the British monarch had the attenuating excuse of episodes of clinical madness.

Trump’s declaration of economic independence and the embrace of 19th century protectionism amounts to slamming the door of the rest of the world – and it will probably have the unexpected consequence of the rest of the world deciding, although painfully and slowly, to redo a new world commercial order to replace only America in shape, prospered of and now abandoned.

It will also have geopolitical consequences, as many countries already explore new bilateral trade agreements or examine how to extend regional commercial blocks. The American allies of Japan and South Korea, for example, seek to strengthen trade links with China and speak of accelerating negotiations on their trilateral free trade agreement. And members of the Southeast Asian Nations Association and a complete and progressive agreement for the trans-Pacific partnership now seek to integrate more quickly.

In the meantime, for the Americans and a large part of the world, Trump’s “Liberation Day” is required to provide a severe economic shock – more likely to trigger a global recession.

The director of the International Monetary Fund Kristalina Georgieva has so far limited to warning that Trump’s prices represent “a significant risk” for the global economy. But JPMorgan analysts have increased their risk assessment of a 60% global recession – against a previous prediction of 40% – warning customers that the impact could be “amplified by reprisals, the disruption of the supply chain and a feeling shock”.