How the war in Gaza is remaking the Middle East: NPR

TEL AVIV, Israel — The war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, now nearing its end, has radically reshaped much of the Middle East and continues to provoke aftershocks.

When Hamas launched its surprise attack in southern Israel on the morning of October 7, 2023, it was operating under Middle Eastern rules that had existed for years. On one side was Israel, supported by the United States. On the other, Iran and its partners – Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Assad regime in Syria and the Houthis in Yemen.

Both sides believed they could inflict significant damage on the other, a proposition that made everyone fear a major confrontation.

The last 15 months of fighting have rewritten these rules. Israel has dealt powerful military blows to its rivals, while Iran and its allies have all suffered serious setbacks with no clear path to recovery.

Hamas and Hezbollah saw their leaders wiped out and signed separate ceasefires with Israel from a position of weakness. Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad fled into exile in Russia last month. Iran, meanwhile, is trying to make sense of the rapidly changing Middle East, with a supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, aged 85 and ailing.

The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas announced Wednesday could mark an end to heavy fighting in the region and deter another large-scale war, at least in the short term. But the fighting of the past 15 months has created a litany of woes or made existing problems more difficult to resolve.

The damage to Israel’s reputation

Israel can boast of major military successes, but the devastation it has inflicted on Gaza has caused immense damage to its reputation. More than 46,000 Palestinians have been killed in the territory, more than half of them women and children, according to Gaza health authorities.

The carnage has stoked widespread anger in Arab countries, and this anger extends well beyond the region and affects many Western countries. Israel relies heavily on U.S. military and political support, which will continue under President-elect Donald Trump. But Israel also needs the political support and trade relations of European states to limit its international isolation.

Before the Gaza war, Israel already faced widespread criticism over its brutal occupation of Palestinians. Today, Israel faces even greater scrutiny over how it treats Palestinians in Gaza – and the occupied West Bank, where Jewish settlements are rapidly expanding.

Will Israel work with the international community to help rebuild Gaza and provide Palestinians with a political path to statehood?

Or will Israel continue to crush the Palestinians with punitive measures that have marked Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s many years in office?

Throughout his term, Netanyahu has been committed to security. This promise was undermined by the Hamas attack. Now, with the war in Gaza seemingly over, Israel will likely find itself in a stronger security position in the years to come. However, Israel can expect intense political pressure regarding its policies towards the Palestinians.

Iranian strategy is in tatters

Iran’s strategy for decades has been to support a network of Arab partners with the aim of undermining Israel. This approach is now in tatters.

Iran’s proxies have been overwhelmed by the fighting with Israel. Iran itself suffered setbacks in its missile exchanges with Israel last year. Military analysts say Iran’s air defenses have been significantly weakened, leaving the country vulnerable to future airstrikes from Israel.

Additionally, Iran’s fragile economy is hobbled by Western sanctions, leaving the country unable to continue the type of military assistance it provides to its partners.

Iran will also have to deal with Trump, who takes office on Monday. He imposed a “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran during his first administration and is expected to pursue a hard line again.

Iran may be forced to make compromises – such as reducing or abandoning its support for proxies – in exchange for sanctions relief.

Of course, Iran could go in the opposite direction and push for nuclear weapons, seeing this as the best form of defense – a move that would risk generating confrontation with the United States and Israel.

Land destroyed and in urgent need

Several countries in the Middle East were already in a state of misery before October 7, 2023, and recent fighting has only added to the despair.

Much of Gaza has been reduced to rubble. Almost all of its 2.2 million residents have been repeatedly displaced and have no home to return to. Israel says it will no longer allow the United Nations organization for Palestinian refugees, UNRWA, to operate in the territory.

The crisis in Gaza is the most acute, but Lebanon and Syria also face considerable problems.

Lebanon has suffered chronic political and economic difficulties for years, and the Israeli military offensive last fall inflicted significant damage in the south of the country. In a small glimmer of hope, Lebanon’s parliament recently chose a president, the first time in more than two years that the position has been filled.

Syria’s nearly 14-year civil war ended when Assad fled into exile in Russia last month, but rebuilding the shattered country will be a colossal and long-term project. More than half of Syria’s population was driven from their homes during the war.

A ceasefire in Gaza, if it materializes, would mark the end of 15 months of incessant upheaval. The changes initiated will continue in the years to come.