How the Gaza hostage ceasefire deal will play out and why it’s so shaky

Israeli troops withdrew to the outskirts of Gaza, the first hostages were freed and many Palestinians returned to what remained of their homes in the first days of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas , halting fighting for only the second time since the signing of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. The war began with the terrorist group’s cross-border attack on October 7, 2023.

If implementation of the deal goes as planned, there will be no fighting in Gaza for at least six weeks, and dozens of Israeli hostages and hundreds of Palestinian security prisoners will be released while more Help will arrive.

The question is whether the ceasefire will survive beyond the first phase – and an annex to the agreement provided to The Associated Press reveals some of the tensions there.

The extension of the ceasefire depends on further negotiations expected to begin soon that would address the difficult question of how Gaza will be governed, with Israel still demanding the elimination of Hamas.

Beyond these negotiations is the possibility that Israel will resume its campaign to destroy the terrorist group – even if dozens of hostages remain in its hands.

Here is an overview of the plan and the main challenges ahead.

Israeli troops withdraw and Palestinians return home

Under Phase 1, Israeli troops withdrew to a buffer zone along the Gaza-Israel border. According to the annex, verified by AP, the buffer zone is 700 meters wide in most areas.

This allowed displaced Palestinians to begin returning to their homes, many of which were destroyed or severely damaged by the Israeli campaign.

But their return was a complicated point in the negotiations. Israel has long demanded that it maintain control of Palestinian movements to ensure that Hamas does not repatriate weapons to northern Gaza, near Israeli communities.

Throughout the war, the Israeli military prevented Palestinians from returning to the north by cutting off Gaza along the Netzarim Corridor, a belt stretching east to west through the strip where troops eliminated the Palestinian population and established bases.

According to the annex, Israel will begin on Saturday allowing displaced Palestinians to return to the north without searches, but only on foot via the main north-south coastal road. In the coming weeks, it is planned to open another lane to pedestrian traffic, without inspection.

A private company – details of which have not yet been officially announced – will search Palestinians returning in vehicles to prevent military equipment from reaching the north, according to the annex. The document states that this will also start from Saturday, but it is still unclear how this will work.

The annex was confirmed by several officials involved in the negotiations, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to comment publicly.

Exchange of hostages for Palestinian security prisoners

In the first phase, Hamas is expected to release 33 hostages in exchange for Israel’s release of 1,904 Palestinian prisoners and detainees.

The first exchange took place on Sunday with the release of three Israeli hostages and 90 Palestinian prisoners. By the end of the 42 days, all women, children and elderly people detained by the terrorist group should be released.

Currently, some 91 hostages, living and dead, remain captive inside Gaza, a mix of civilians, soldiers and foreigners. The army estimates that at least a third of them are dead.

The next exchange is scheduled for Saturday. After that, if the deal doesn’t go through, there will be weekly posts.

The 33 include women, children, the sick and people over 50 – almost all civilians, but the agreement also commits Hamas to releasing all surviving female soldiers during Phase 1. Hamas will release the live hostages first, but may release some bodies if it does so. There are not enough hostages alive in this category.

In exchange, Israel will release 30 Palestinian women, children or elderly people for every living civilian hostage released. The agreement calls for those released to include more than 110 Palestinians serving life sentences. For every female soldier released, Israel will release 50 Palestinian prisoners, including 30 serving life sentences.

Many of the prisoners who will be released have been convicted of deadly attacks. Several Palestinian prisoners will be sent abroad or to Gaza, according to the agreement, but it is not clear to whom this will apply and which country will accept them.

According to the annex, Israel will also release 1,000 people detained in Gaza since the start of the war, provided they are not accused of being involved in the October 7, 2023 attack that sparked the war, when some 3,000 terrorists led by Hamas invaded the south. Israel from Gaza, killing some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and taking 251 hostages, amid acts of brutality and sexual assault.

Dozens of male hostages, including soldiers, will remain captive in Gaza, awaiting the second phase.

The Philadelphia Corridor

At the end of the first phase, Israel also committed to begin reducing its forces in the Philadelphia Corridor, a strategic strip of territory along the Gaza-Egypt border – and, according to the annex, they will withdraw completely by the 50th day. Maintaining a long-term presence in the corridor while Hamas demanded a complete withdrawal was one of the most difficult issues in the ceasefire negotiations.

At the same time, the document says the Rafah crossing into Egypt will be reopened to allow wounded and sick Palestinians – including a few dozen wounded fighters, whose exit would need to be approved by Israel and Egypt – to be evacuated for treatment, but only when all female hostages have been released, including female soldiers.

An Israeli official told the AP that Israeli troops would not be withdrawn from Gaza for the first 42 days, but only redistributed. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the closed-door negotiations, also said that if he reached an agreement with Hamas on Phase 2 that meets Israel’s war goals, that include the complete dismantling of the terrorist group, Israel would remain within the terrorist group. the hallway.

Humanitarian aid

In the first phase, aid to Gaza amounts to hundreds of trucks per day carrying food, medicine, construction materials and fuel to alleviate the humanitarian crisis. It has already started.

The need is great. Malnutrition and disease are rampant among Palestinians, while hospitals have been damaged and lack supplies.

However, implementation could pose problems.

Even before the war, Israel had restricted the entry of certain equipment, arguing that it could be used for military purposes by Hamas. To complicate matters further, the Israeli government is still determined to ban UNRWA – the UN agency that is the main distributor of aid to Gaza – from operating and to cut all ties between the agency and the Israeli government.

The ban follows revelations that many of the agency’s employees were Hamas fighters and that a handful even participated in the October 7 attack.

Beyond phase 1

The broad outlines of phase 2 are defined in the agreement: all remaining hostages must be released in exchange for a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and “lasting calm”.

But this seemingly basic exchange raises much bigger issues.

Israel has said it will not agree to a complete withdrawal until Hamas’s military and political capabilities are eliminated. Hamas says it will not hand over the last hostages until Israel withdraws all its troops from Gaza.

The two parties will therefore have to agree on a plan to govern Gaza. Hamas has said it would be willing to step down, but it could still seek involvement in a future government, something Israel has vehemently rejected. And it is unlikely that she will give up her arms. Israel also rejected the alternative that the Palestinian Authority would govern Gaza.

If all parties reach the third phase, it will likely be less controversial: the bodies of the remaining hostages will be returned in exchange for a three- to five-year reconstruction plan in Gaza, but it is also unclear who will pay for that.