How Sean Payton’s Broncos Exceeded Expectations, Wild-Card X-factors

The Broncos are back in the playoffs and that means the Broncos Roundtable is also convened again.

Before the Broncos head to Buffalo, let’s take a look at how Sean Payton’s team got here and what needs to happen on the shores of Lake Erie on Sunday for Denver to pull off an upset and advance to the divisional round.

Okay, wise guys, the Broncos exceeded expectations this fall because…

Ryan McFadden and the Broncos beat the reporter: When you have a good coach and quarterback relationship, anything is possible. This is what we saw from Sean Payton and Bo Nix. Like all good things, it took time. But these two make a perfect duo and the Broncos took advantage. Despite an inconsistent running game and lackluster production from tight ends in the passing game, the Broncos finished 10th in scoring (25.0 per game) after being 19th in 2023. Denver scored at least 25 points in nine games . Nix finished the regular season with the sixth-most passing touchdowns in the league (29). Vance Joseph and Denver’s defense worked wonders. But the dynamic between Nix and Payton allowed Denver to accelerate the rebuilding process.

Troy Renck, columnist: This season was always going to be different: younger, more aggressive, more united. They are better than expected because the Bo Nix-Sean Payton partnership is better than expected. They’re a postseason team because they’ve mixed unique ancillary pieces — see Malcolm Roach, Dondrea Tillman, Nate Adkins — with no fewer than five players who have had career years. Nik Bonitto was supposed to be a solid starter. He was one of the best rushers in the league. Could Riley Moss be functional? He gave the Broncos a great cornerback tandem. Brandon Jones is a much better fit for Vance Joseph’s defense than Justin Simmons. Zach Allen is now Sack Allen. Pat Surtain II went from locally good to nationally known. And Marvin Mims Jr. is suddenly a Starburst weapon. The Broncos are not the team we thought they would be, but the team they thought they could be.

Sean Keeler, columnist: Because of a defense that would make the late, great Joe Collier proud. Due to a franchise record 63 sacks. Because that killer pass rush gave Bo Nix and a young receiving corps time to learn, and sometimes fail, on the job. Great defensive trips, and Casa Bonitto and the rest of Orange Crush II have recorded five or more sacks in a road game five times. No shocker: Denver went 4-1 in these tilts, and the only loss in this subset was an OT crusher in Cincinnati against a white-hot Joe Burrow. It takes a village to bring a zombie franchise back from the dead, and 10-7 was the work of many hands. In a QB-Coach league, the Broncos Finally I found a combo that stuck with Bo Nix and Sean Payton, and hallelujah. But don’t forget how Vance Joseph’s team let these two spaces grow.

Parker Gabriel and the Broncos beat the reporter: Agree on all fronts, guys. Speaking of good tandems, Payton and general manager George Paton also quickly morphed into one. The Broncos’ 2024 draft class is shaping up to be special. It may be taboo to suggest that a team be built via free agency and trades, but Denver’s success rate over the past two years has been exceptional. Consider a non-exhaustive list of free agents and trade acquisitions over the past two offseasons: Allen, Roach and fellow DL John Franklin-Myers, Jones, RT Mike McGlinchey, LG Ben Powers and K Wil Lutz. They are major contributors in all three phases without any major hiccups. It’s good work.

If Denver pulls off the upset on Sunday in Buffalo, what or who will be the “X” factor?

McFadden: I think this game will depend on how well the Broncos can put pressure on Bills quarterback Josh Allen. Denver led the league in sacks. However, Buffalo has allowed the fewest sacks (24) and the sixth-lowest pressure rate (31.4%). The Broncos are 5-1 when recording at least five sacks. Bonitto, Jonathon Cooper and Allen took hits on opposing quarterbacks all season long. An upset in Buffalo will be determined by the defensive line’s ability to dominate in the trenches.

Renck: The plan must be a Xerox copy of last year’s surprise. Win the turnover battle. Win the game. This will likely go to the team with the most sacks. If Denver can get to three sacks – a tall order – they will need to force a fumble and possibly a scoop and score. Payton is 1-5 on the road in the postseason. It’s hard to win, especially against Josh Allen, who dominates Wild Card matches. The Broncos must lead offensively with their chin and go in defensively with a battery of exotic blitzes. This playoff spot is a gift, a year ahead of schedule. Opt for boldness!

Keeler: Justin Strnad and Cody Barton, especially if they can keep things – namely defenseman James Cook – largely in front of them. Josh Allen is built to pose problems for this defense. He’s big. He’s fast. He is wise. He will dance without tackles. It’s going to take off. He is also a king of control. Of Allen’s 28 passing grades, eight were attributed to running backs. Of Buffalo’s 56 “explosive” passes (throws that gained 20 yards or more), 10 were directed to guys taking passes out of the backfield. The Bills’ spreads are a good matchup for PS2 and Riley Moss. How the Broncos handle targets up the middle and in the flat will likely dictate how this chapter plays out.

Gabriel: Well, guys, I was going to say Franklin-Myers but you all went on defense. So, what about Marvin Mims Jr.? He played a pivotal role in Monday Night’s win there last year with his work in the rematch and he might be Denver’s most dangerous offensive player at this point, as he is now. You need field swingers in the playoffs. Mims has this kind of ability.

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