Polling experts say British political history suggests campaigns don’t change election results much.
Tom Lubbock, co-founder of the polling firm JL Partners and former head of analysis for the Conservatives, said that “academic research indicates that campaigns tend not to matter” and that he was “fairly rare” that they actually change anything.
A major exception is the 2017 campaign, which saw the Conservatives squander a massive polling lead under Theresa May in an election that ended in a hung Parliament.
Lubbock said Sunak could retain some hope of doing “a reverse Theresa May” because “the electorate has become more unstable”.
“The British also like fighters, they like underdogs,” he said.
Unfortunately for the Conservatives, all current evidence also points to a clear Tory fatigue after 14 years in power and five different Prime Ministers.
Labour’s simple message, “It’s time for change”, which is already being spread on its leaflets, may be impossible to counter – whether people voted in July or November.
Politices
